Sunday, April 03, 2005
So how'd I do?
Predictions from one year ago.
I think I was right about the broad strokes of history. I was wrong about the timeline that it would take to put down Al Sadr's militia (I was pretty close the first time, but you have to count the second uprising in August).
I was right about moving towards the elections. I was right about the Iraqis tiring of the terrorists making trouble. I was right about the return of the level of violence to the baseline level of winter 2003 (although it took longer in Al Anbar, since we had to eliminate the insurgent base in Fallujah. Actually, I thought we would have done that by mid summer 2004, but we let it fester until November.
I was right about Al Qaeda continuing to target Shias in an attempt to foment civil war. I was right about Al Sadr losing credibility and Sistani reasserting control.
I was wrong about Al Qaeda targeting coalition nations. I'm sure they tried, but they seem to have failed in the execution. And they have so far failed to execute further terrorist attacks in the U.S., or even abroad on the scale of the USS Cole, with the exception of the chow hall bombing in Mosul. But I think that was part of a different phenomenon.
Most importantly, I was right that a commitment to the timeline of handing sovereignty over to the Iraqis would pay off, and I was right that holding the elections on time would pay off, and delaying them would backfire.
Y'all can compare my track record to Juan Cole's any day.
I think I was right about the broad strokes of history. I was wrong about the timeline that it would take to put down Al Sadr's militia (I was pretty close the first time, but you have to count the second uprising in August).
I was right about moving towards the elections. I was right about the Iraqis tiring of the terrorists making trouble. I was right about the return of the level of violence to the baseline level of winter 2003 (although it took longer in Al Anbar, since we had to eliminate the insurgent base in Fallujah. Actually, I thought we would have done that by mid summer 2004, but we let it fester until November.
I was right about Al Qaeda continuing to target Shias in an attempt to foment civil war. I was right about Al Sadr losing credibility and Sistani reasserting control.
I was wrong about Al Qaeda targeting coalition nations. I'm sure they tried, but they seem to have failed in the execution. And they have so far failed to execute further terrorist attacks in the U.S., or even abroad on the scale of the USS Cole, with the exception of the chow hall bombing in Mosul. But I think that was part of a different phenomenon.
Most importantly, I was right that a commitment to the timeline of handing sovereignty over to the Iraqis would pay off, and I was right that holding the elections on time would pay off, and delaying them would backfire.
Y'all can compare my track record to Juan Cole's any day.
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