Friday, May 28, 2004
Predictions 04...How'm I Doin???
...As former NYC Mayor Ed Koch would say.
Here's what I wrote on Saturday, April 10th:
Ok, so it's been 7 weeks instead of six. But as far as it goes, I think things are working out pretty much as I thought they would. I was never all that worried that the Al Sadr uprising would spread much beyond those few towns and Sadr City in Baghdad. Fallujah was much the tougher nut to crack.
Now the guerrillas in Najaf and Karbala are going to ground, rather than face annihilation along with their shrines--something nobody really wants. Not even the Al Sadr militia. Well, Al Qaeda might enjoy the prospect. But Al Sadr is not Al Qaeda, and those shrines are more important to them than they are to Al Qaeda.
Al Sadr exercised power very publicly in those cities. But now that the militia has gone to ground, Iraqi security forces, with US muscle, will be able to round up the ringleaders one by one-and do so much more easily and efficiently, with less risk--than they would be if the open uprising were to continue.
The battle still rages. But silently.
I don't think we're giving up all that much. A cease fire benefits us almost as much as the militia. Continued hostilities would merely mean hundreds more dead 16 year-old kids with AKs. Hardly a meaningful long-term gain when compared with the prospect of bypassing their resistance and simply rousting the ringleaders, one by one, based on the tips of a fed up populace.
And the two bulls sauntered slowly down the hill.
Splash, out
Jason
Here's what I wrote on Saturday, April 10th:
My best guess is that within about 4-6 weeks the Sadr brigade and Mahdi militias will have gone to ground once again, or be destroyed by American forces, at which time we will see a return to the baseline levels of violence and insurgent activities we have seen over most of the winter.
I hate to fall into the tired saw that "the only thing Iraqis understand is force." Iraqis aren't dogs. But they do understand force very well. And they will soon find out that amateur militias unsupported by regular troops don't last very long in the face of a determined onslaught by the opposing force's regulars.
The militiamen have taken control of several cities at the moment. They cannot hold them. If they try, they will be dispatched very handily. Which will cost the militia a lot of the short-term support they've built up--which is still a minority of the Shia community.
Sistani is still the stronger and wiser man. Iraqi's aren't totally clueless--they'll figure this out, soon. And they'll realize that Sadr brings nothing but suffering to his people.
Mostly, Iraqis don't want to kill or be killed. They want to keep their heads down, rebuild their country, send their children to school, and get on with their lives. More than anything, they want security. So far, Coalition forces and our allies in the Iraqi Police have been hard-pressed to provide it. But Al Sadr will be further discredited when it becomes apparent to the Iraqis that he can provide even less.
Insurgency will come in and out of fashion. But Iraqis will soon tire of the idiots in their midst causing trouble and attracting disruptive coalition troops. And when their towns are retaken, there will be many willing sources eager to finger the militia ringleaders.
Ok, so it's been 7 weeks instead of six. But as far as it goes, I think things are working out pretty much as I thought they would. I was never all that worried that the Al Sadr uprising would spread much beyond those few towns and Sadr City in Baghdad. Fallujah was much the tougher nut to crack.
Now the guerrillas in Najaf and Karbala are going to ground, rather than face annihilation along with their shrines--something nobody really wants. Not even the Al Sadr militia. Well, Al Qaeda might enjoy the prospect. But Al Sadr is not Al Qaeda, and those shrines are more important to them than they are to Al Qaeda.
Al Sadr exercised power very publicly in those cities. But now that the militia has gone to ground, Iraqi security forces, with US muscle, will be able to round up the ringleaders one by one-and do so much more easily and efficiently, with less risk--than they would be if the open uprising were to continue.
The battle still rages. But silently.
I don't think we're giving up all that much. A cease fire benefits us almost as much as the militia. Continued hostilities would merely mean hundreds more dead 16 year-old kids with AKs. Hardly a meaningful long-term gain when compared with the prospect of bypassing their resistance and simply rousting the ringleaders, one by one, based on the tips of a fed up populace.
And the two bulls sauntered slowly down the hill.
Splash, out
Jason
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