Sunday, July 06, 2008

Spectacular Victory 
That's how the Times of London puts it:

American and Iraqi forces are driving Al-Qaeda in Iraq out of its last redoubt in the north of the country in the culmination of one of the most spectacular victories of the war on terror.

The clincher: Al Qaeda has been expelled from the city itself and driven into the countryside, where US and Iraqi firepower can be brought to bear and where it is impossible for them to disappear into a crowd.

American and Iraqi leaders believe that while it would be premature to write off Al-Qaeda in Iraq, the Sunni group has lost control of its last urban base in Mosul and its remnants have been largely driven into the countryside to the south.

Al Qaeda has a lot of flexibility and resilience. But it's hard for me to imagine that Ayman al Zawahiri would want to throw good fighters after bad and reinforce failure. For that reason, so long as the US remains steadfast, I don't see Al Qaeda making any major comebacks. They may find a home in another town, and 1,200 people can cause a lot of trouble. But 1,200 people are a lot of people to hide, as well.

Instead, I believe Al Qaeda will attempt to open another front. The Horn of Africa seems like an obvious choice, but if I were in there shoes, I'd look for someplace as landlocked as possible. Perhaps Uzbekistan and Chechnya are due for a heat-up.

But Al Qaeda in Iraq is just about finished.

Harry "The war is lost" Reid could not be reached for comment.

Splash, out


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Obama can always surrender to Canada.

AQ though is harder to predict. But I think they will stay closer to home, First Pakistan, I think they have enough of base there to survive for years, and believe it or not, I think Turkey is their next big target.
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