Sunday, January 21, 2007

This Holocaust Will Be Different 
Benny Morris has a vision of Armageddon in the Jerusalem Post.

The second holocaust will be quite different. One bright morning, in five or 10 years, perhaps during a regional crisis, perhaps out of the blue, a day or a year or five years after Iran’s acquisition of the Bomb, the mullahs in Qom will convene in secret session, under a portrait of the steely-eyed Ayatollah Khomeini, and give President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, by then in his second or third term, the go-ahead.

My prediction is somewhat different: Iran will not try to use missiles to destroy Israel. The mullahs are not stupid. Instead, they will employ nonstate actors to do their dirty work for them.

Perhaps not the dangerous and militantly Sunni Al Qaeda, but a few trusted agents in Hezbollah - and maybe their own Quds-force fighters, to smuggle in nuclear weapons in vessels offshore or in shipping containers or in trucks laden with fruit or gasoline.

Perhaps they will be able to frame the whole thing on someone else.

This will be Iran's methodology. Alas, the goal will be the same - the eradication of Israel as we know it, and the extermination of Israeli Jews.

They will keep enough in hand, perhaps in a secret location outside of Iran, to deter or blackmail the United States from mounting a massive retaliatory strike of its own, lest another bomb go off in Long Beach or Boston or New York.

Splash, out


I agree.

I also wondered if the recent missile strikes from southern Lebanon were practice. Attack and deny works because we let it work. It will only get worse.

Blackmail is a likely option. But it is less likely than an attack. 9/11 was a religious act, not a practical military strategy.
The Israelis need an assured second strike capability - the ability to wipe out the entire Arab world and Iran. Then they tell them all: "if we get hit, everyone is coming with us, regardless of where it comes from, and even if there is no return address."
Israel does most likely have second strike capability. Those German-made subs can launch Popeye Turbo cruise missiles, according to some reports. So, if Israel does have those and nuclear weapons, they can wipe out a few choice targets in retaliation. Choices could include say Teheran, Suez, Cairo, Mecca, Damascus... you name it.

So, it is in everyone's best interest to deny Iran nuclear weapons.
Israel should save a warhead or four for any nation that aids and abets Iran's nuclear program. Its stated policy should be that its last act as a sovreign nation as we know it will be to obliterate the capital city of any nation that materially enables Iran to develop nuclear technology.

Let's introduce some moral hazard into the mix, shall we?
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