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Sunday, October 02, 2005

"This is f***ing HARD!!!" Or what it takes to deliver one truck of ice 
The New York Times runs this piece on the real-world logistical problems involved in just getting a truckload of ice to people who need it.

What the Times doesn't seem to appreciate, though, is that these kinds of SNAFUs are not exceptional. Rather, they're normal! This is how things actually happen in the real world, with a new operation!

Delivering ice to a disaster area is not like delivering ice to the local Walmart. At Walmart, you know your demand for ice this week is going to be pretty similar to the demand for ice during this same week last year, unless there's a big football game in your town. But you know what the demand will be at that football game, because it will be pretty similar to the EXCESS demand for ice the last time U. played State in your town. And so you can order accordingly. From your regular vendor, who already knows you, and know where to park the truck. Adjust for population changes to taste.

The process is called forecasting based on comparable periods.

The problem with a hurricane is that there is NEVER a "comparable period." You MUST assume the worst, and then adjust downward, or cancel orders from there. But the problem with bringing ice in from outside the state - i.e., the FEDERAL piece of the disaster response, is that you must commit resources to the ice delivery DAYS before the delivery is anticipated.

You do a backwards time plan:

D day: Ice unloaded and distributed
D - 1: Ice truck arrives in staging area
D - 2: Ice truck travels from pick-up zone to disaster area
D - 3: Ice truck arrives at ice pick up point, waits for a forklift to become available, or sits in a queue, and loads cargo
D - 4: Ice truck travels from its current assignment two states away to ice pickup point.
D - 5: Ice truck driver gets word to finish its current drop off, and then go pick up ice.
D - 5: FEMA receives request for bulk ice from state officials, and calls a trucking company to contract for the service.


Now, someone tell me how that's going to be short-circuited, especially when in the earlier days, the highways are impassable?

Should FEMA keep a fleet of hundreds of trucks and truck drivers sitting around for months at a time, waiting for something to happen? Oh, and they ALL have to be reefer trucks. How is that cost-effective? Isn't it cheaper and smarter just to tell people not to count on Federal response for a few days?

With a Hurricane or other disaster, it's the first trip in for every truck driver on a federal mission. Many of the street signs will have been blown down. Cell phone towers are down - officials at ice distribution points may not have good communications with EOCs to let them know they've got too much ice. EOC must roll the trucks anyway, according to the plan.

In this case, it looks to me like FEMA performed beautifully. It actually got more ice to several locales than local officials were able to distribute. Same with the hurricanes in Florida. Although in each case in Florida, the hurricanes did not strike with the same force originally anticipated two days out. Charley was probably the nastiest of them, but the affected area was relatively compact. And Charley was originally threatening Tampa, not Port Charlotte. And so State and Federal officials had to plan - and order bulk ice - for a community the size of Tampa. And commit those trucks and that money while the storm was still out at sea, and nobody knew where it was going to hit.

The National Guard distributed tons of ice in Lee County and Charlotte County and Punta Gorda. But it was not Tampa, and so yes, there was ice left over. This is not a bad thing. This is prudent planning.

Maybe someone could have done better at diverting the trucks on the fly, mid-mission, maybe not. I don't know what communication assets were available to the EOCs. (Most EOC directors are not going to turn ice away from their counties, anyway).

But that's a local and state duty. Not a federal duty. It isn't FEMA's job to know where the locals want the ice. It's just FEMAs job to get the ice there. And if FEMA delivers too much, then that's not a bad thing.

There was a lot of bulk ice staged in a stadium in Homestead waiting for Rita to pass by that it turned out they didn't need. Those were among the trucks that were sent over towards Texas later that day, to get a jump on the storm.

Look, Times. Logistics is hard. Most people don't notice what happens because most of the time it's invisible. Most of the time, people rely on standard operating procedures and routine activities. Those go out the window in a disaster, and they often go out the window in combat.

Many are the ops guys who complained about the support they were getting. "How hard can it be to load the chow on a f***ing truck???" asked one infantry company commander during an annual training.

Two years later, that company commander was an S-4. He was seen walking into the battalion TOC at the end of a hellacious day, and throwing his helmet at the side of a tent.

"This is f***ing hard!!!!"

Yes.

Splash out,

Jason

Comments:
I read this article. It took until the middle of the 2nd page (not the front page, of course) for them to reveal the fact that the ice was turned away because of logistical problems. (The distribution points could not handle so much ice.)

What is most irritating about the media in general and people who 'buy into it' is the assumption that there are no details and that the details (logistics included) don't matter. The reason why the truck of ice ended up in Maine isn't because it took a wrong turn because FEMA is evil, it's a simple matter than the warehouses were full of ice further south.
 
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Start Over : When couples first get together, everything is new and exciting.

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