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Saturday, September 03, 2005

The unforgiving mathematics of evacuations 
Yet another shameless plagiarization, this time from one of Jeff Jarvis's readers.




I can’t BELIEVE you people.

Disgusting. Really disgusting.

You have NO CLUE what rescue efforts entail, what it takes to shift people and material over 100s of miles of randomly destroyed terrain in any sort of organized fashion, you’ve got no idea AT ALL what it takes to feed and house the people DOING the relief work, much less what it takes to actually get the job done.

One of the pissant little socialists here said:

“”"
And yes, BOB, Americans pay taxes so that this kind of situation never happens.
“”"
Really, tax dollars prevent hurricanes?

Oh, you mean you’re willing to spend upwards of a billion dollars a year nationally (in FY2000 FEMA requested 300 billion for disaster releif, this is one agency, and doesn’t include Coast Guard or National Guard budgets etc.) to keep men and material prepared for the kinds of disasters that happen once every decade or two?

Like hell you are. You’d be one of the first to whine about how that money could go to…well, let’s not get any nastier.

“”"
I cannot believe this is our country. The government should have been mobilized and ready to go on MONDAY!
“”"

They were. Bush made the “Disaster Area” declaration before the storm hit land.

Do some math would you PLEASE? I realize it’s “linear thinking”, and “hard”, but just stop and figure:

Let n be the number of buses needed to to shift people from one place to the other.
Let x be the number of miles you need to shift these people to get them to “saftey”.
Let y be the number of people you can shift per bus.
Let p be the total population you’ve got to move.
Let h be the time you’ve got to move them in.

The simple calculation is:
n=p/y

How many people on a bus? Well, let’s assume a big bus, I think that’s around 70 people, and we’re going to move them 300 miles from the coast (the effected area reaches inland /at least/ 120 miles, my daughter lives in Central MS, and as of 3 this afternoon they were w/out power and she was heading to Atlanta to be with her mom)

How many people have we got to move? 2000:

29=2000/70 (this is integer math, we get whole buses so we round up).

10000 people:
143 buses.

100,000 people:
1429 busses.

Now, 1429 buses is a lot. And that’s also 1429 drivers that have to be gotten somewhere on time etc. Where are you going to get that many? You won’t. You can’t. The buses in the damaged areas cannot be planned on, nor can the drivers (they have families etc.). So you do with fewer buses but make multiple trips, this gets even worse, because now you add time into it, and it becomes about how long it takes to shift people, and how many you can shift per trip or hour.

All this takes planning. And shifting resources around (buses have to be fueled people have to be fed and watered etc.).

And 100,000 is only 1/10th-1/12th of hte people in that area. In addition to just shifting these people you’ve got medical problems, rescue problems etc.

And you /cannot/ pre-plan and pre-stage because you don’t know where the damage will happen, so you can’t count on any particular route being open, and you can’t count on any particular *close* spot being safe, and if you’re too far away you’re running low on fuel inside the damage zone and and and and.

70 per bus, 300 miles each way. 60 miles per hour. That’s 70 people per bus in per 10 hours. Or 7 people per hour per bus.

You’ve got 100,000 people to shift, which means (basically) 14286 bus hours, so 10 buses finishes the job in 1428 hours, 100 finishes in 142 hours (actually add 5 to that for 1 one way trip). To get 100,000 people shifted in 48 hours you’re going to need roughly 298 buses. Which is also 298 drivers. This is all, of course, assuming that things go smoothly. You could probably gather up 3oo school buses from the states around the affected areas and get them in, but school buses are smaller (IIRC about 40 adults) than what I was talking about. WHich means almost (fudging because of the hour) twice as many buses and drivers.

Right after a hurricane. And we haven’t even begun to talk about how many buses go to where and at what time. Or about how to handle medical problems on the bus, feed the people etc. Hell, even refueling the buses.

And note, we’re just talking about getting 100,000 people out of New Orleans and the surrounding area.

And we didn’t /know/ it was going to be New Orleans until Saturday/Sunday.

And on Tuesday morning (before the levee gave way) it looked like things were going to be, well, not ok, but not worse-case. So the planners started shifting resources and planning to the areas that were obviously going to need it.

Then the damn broke.

There are good reasons why there are NO large scale evacuation plans for any metropolitan are in this country. You simply CANNOT plan that sort of thing. Really, Really bright people have tried, and they keep realizing it DOES NOT WORK.

Reality is NOT ameniable to our desires /just/ because we wish it. Maybe someday we’ll be able to predict this stuff 2-3 weeks out with reasonable accuracy, and get people out of the way in time. Now we cannot, so we have to clean up afterwards.

The government is moving just as fast (or faster) on this disaster as they have in all the others, it’s just that now information flows even faster, and we’re all–left, center and right–hurting for these people.

(Asside: why did people stay in the path of a Cat 4/5 hurricane? Because the leftist school system, coupled with the Christian foot stomping over science has left people without a basic understanding of weather, physics and math? Well, partly. Because there is still a perception of Meterologists being completely WRONG? Well, partly. Because of 2 decades of media/newspapers predicting TEOTWAWKI and it turns out to be not that big a deal? Partly. Because many were too poor to leave? Sure. Teach people math and physics and they’ll move when they realize how much energy is coming straight at them).

But you’re not interested in that, because that makes Bush (in this case) just someone reacting to events outside ANYONEs control, and that means you can’t whine more about him.

And quite frankly that petty, lame, and rather small.




Yep.

Comments:
I took the other approach to the same issue. I looked at the problems of moving just one bus.

Dave

http://www.angryot.blogspot.com/
 
Excellent post. My husband & I have been shouting it at the MSM talking heads the last few days...but apparently they cannot hear us...perhaps we are suffering a communication failure (Not unlike that of the Govenor of LA & the Mayor of New Orleans...wonder if they'd have coordinated better if Mayor Nagin had endorsed her instead of the Republican candidate who she defeated.)
 
What gets me is that even if the govt. had provided buses before the hurricane, how many of the people there now would have actually gotten on them????? Is it not the responsibility of state and local govt. to provide initial assistance, then asking for federal help................
 
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Here's 600+ of the buses needed...Mayor Nagin seemed to have forgotten to use them (or at least move them to higher ground).

Check this link:
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/050901/480/flpc21109012015

Meanwhile Mayor Nagin, the govenor of Louisana, the DNC, MSM, et al are still yapping that it's George Bush's fault that the town wasn't evacuated...seems to me those buses could have evac'd 24,000 per lap (40 x 600).
 
I'm puzzled here, because the discussion of difficulty is about using buses after the hurricane, whereas the evacuation plan that the state and locals didn't implement was about using buses before the hurricane. It seems to me that this could have been perfectly practical (and as this post says, it could have involved other states, though I doubt it would have needed to.) I posted about it at
Mistakes by TJM; I really don't see what's not obvious about it. But then, I'm not only not a logistics expert, I've never driven a bus or truck in my life.
 
Any disaster plan has evacuation plans for before and after the disaster.

The plan for after, takes into account that most roads. bridges, tunnels, railways will not be usable.

But as was said, if you don't actually DO what the plan says..well what is the use in having one at all?

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In search of the best


Ask.com, Answers.com outperform more popular Web engines

Even as they become more savvy, the Internet's leading search engines still sometimes bog down in befuddlement when a specific kernel of knowledge is sought.

Hoping to fill the gap, Answers.com (from GuruNet Corp.) and Ask.com (from Ask Jeeves Inc.) have pledged to provide more adept responses to vexing but straightforward questions about history, science, geography, pop culture and sports.


Both search engines aim to provide a correct answer explicitly at the top of a search's first results page -- or with a highly placed link to a Web page that contains the information.

Their mission raises a question: Just how knowledgeable are these search engines?

To find out, I staged a very unscientific test consisting of questions culled from a recent edition of Trivial Pursuit.

My mock game pitted the avowed prowess of Answers.com and Ask.com against the Internet's most widely used search engines -- Google, Yahoo and Microsoft Corp.'s MSN.

The findings: Answers.com and Ask.com appear to be a small step ahead of Google and noticeably smarter than Yahoo and MSN when dealing with such esoteric questions as "What glass beads are created when a meteorite strikes the Earth's surface?"

Both Answers.com and Ask.com guided me to the correct answer (tektites) with the first link on the results page -- an aptitude that both sites displayed with 10 of the 20 questions posed in the theoretical game. When they didn't get the answer with the very first link in response to some questions, both search engines generally came through within the next two links.

Although they performed similarly in our game,-Answers.com and Ask.com rely on different formulas.

Answers.com relies on a combination of Google's search engine and human editors who have stoked its database with answers to frequently asked questions that they've obtained by poring through reference materials.

Ask.com, part of a Web family about to be acquired by e-commerce conglomerate InterActiveCorp for $2 billion, has devised a fully automated approach that fishes through the Internet's sea of information.

Although they are superior to the other search engines at this task, Answers.com and Ask.com rarely realized their ultimate goal -- making things as clear-cut as possible by summarizing the correct response at the very top of the results page so it wouldn't be necessary to click on a link and peruse another Web site.

Ask.com spit out a concise "Web answer" in just two of the 20 questions, while the only time that Answers.com delivered was when I sought the definition of "googol." (It's the number one followed by 100 zeros.)

Google, which drew its name from that mathematical term, fared reasonably well in the competition. The Internet's most popular search engine came up with the correct answer on the first link in eight of the 20 questions (including the one about tektites). That's something Yahoo did just five times and MSN only twice.

None of the sites was omniscient. Answers.com, Ask.com and Google each drew blanks on three questions (I considered it a miss if a link to the correct answer didn't appear within the first three pages of results). Yahoo and MSN each whiffed on six questions.

There was only one question that baffled all the search engines, "Who was the first Cuban defector to play in Major League Baseball?" Although they all contained references to him in their indexes, none of the search engines could figure out it was Rene Arocha, a pitcher who first signed with the St. Louis Cardinals in the early 1990s.


Though it lagged behind the other search engines in this competition, MSN looked brilliant on one question that stumped all the other search engines: What company was acquired in the biggest leveraged buy-out deal of all time? The first link on MSN's results page took me to a site that correctly listed RJR Nabisco.

The test also revealed the disadvantage of depending on search engines -- they sometimes point to sites with conflicting answers.

This occurred most frequently when I asked how many viewers watched the series finale of the TV show M*A*S*H. The search engines pointed to Web sites that variously listed the audience at anywhere from 105.9 million to nearly 125 million. Trivial Pursuit lists the answer as 121.6 million.

To paraphrase M*A*S*H's theme song, searching for online answers still isn't painless.


About the Author: Michael Liedtke


Copyright © - 2005 Entireweb

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