Saturday, September 24, 2005
Meatgrinder Metrics
Maj D notices that coalition casualties this month are way down. In fact, the casualty rate for September is less than half of what it was in August and the lowest since March - "despite" a series of offensive operations in the north and west.
I put "despite" in quotation marks because I would argue that the low casualty figures are BECAUSE of the offensive operations, not despite them.
What explains the difference? I would venture that the increasing prominence of Iraqi forces is largely behind the lower casualty figures. As the Iraqi forces develop, they take on more of the burden of combat operations themselves, and so represent a lower portion of casualties. The fighting could intensify, and terrorists could even gain a good deal of punching power, but as long as U.S. troops make up a lower percentage of the total troops engaged in any given operation, you wouldn't see it in coalition casualty figures.
We need to start tracking Iraqi Defense Forces casualties right alongside U.S. and allied casualties, and use that to track the trendlines.
I put "despite" in quotation marks because I would argue that the low casualty figures are BECAUSE of the offensive operations, not despite them.
What explains the difference? I would venture that the increasing prominence of Iraqi forces is largely behind the lower casualty figures. As the Iraqi forces develop, they take on more of the burden of combat operations themselves, and so represent a lower portion of casualties. The fighting could intensify, and terrorists could even gain a good deal of punching power, but as long as U.S. troops make up a lower percentage of the total troops engaged in any given operation, you wouldn't see it in coalition casualty figures.
We need to start tracking Iraqi Defense Forces casualties right alongside U.S. and allied casualties, and use that to track the trendlines.
Comments:
Just watched "Blackhawk Down" again last week. The scene that jumps immediately to mind is when the second bird goes down and the general announces, "We have just lost the initiative." Perhaps Zarqawi and his ilk are having an 'initiative' moment.
MAJ D
www.angryot.blogspot.com
MAJ D
www.angryot.blogspot.com
As the Iraqi forces develop, they take on more of the burden of combat operations themselves, and so represent a lower portion of casualties.
I'm still trying to parse that one. I'm not sure you got it right.
I'm still trying to parse that one. I'm not sure you got it right.
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