Thursday, September 01, 2005
The logistics of disaster relief operations
I didn't think that Ann Althouse would panic, but she did, in a way that would make MoDo proud.
There's something called "logistics." Check it out.
You cannot just snap your fingers and make the military suddenly appear somewhere.
Nor can you legally send federal troops willy-nilly to shoot looters, courtesy of the Posse Comitatus act. You should know this, Ann. You're a lawyer by profession. You shouldn't need a dumb grunt to explain it to you.
But watch for much of our news commentary and public debate to predicate itself around a vast ignorance of logistical capacity and principals.
For instance: Suppose you got a brigade worth of troops (5,000 or so) available,. How are you going to support them? How will you transport them? Think organic trans is sufficient? Think again. Even at 100% operational readiness, a typical infantry battalion can only self transport perhaps a company at a time. And if every soldier is bringing a rucksack and a dufflebag, you're really talking about maybe two platoons. And unless you expect the unit to become a drain on local resources, every company is going to take a half truck or more of MREs and a half truck or more of bottled water, along with its own water trailers. I've seen it happen. I've done it. I've been a battalion S4 in combat, an HHC XO for dozens of major moves of a hundred miles or more, and an HHC company commander for six hurricane mobilizations.
Now, you can use busses. But only if you take busses away from the immediate mission of transporting people out of the most severely affected areas of New Orleans. Well, suppose a 44 passenger bus has a round trip of a half day between a National Guard armory in Texas. That bus can not even transport a platoon of soldiers in a single day (and will have to refuel somewhere.) But that same bus, if you keep it in New Orleans, can make as many as 8 or 10 trips back and forth, and evacuate maybe 600 to 800 people, assuming an hour round trip between an affected area and a safe area.
So which do you choose? My money's on the evac.
But suppose you stripped the evac effort dry and got enough busses to support a 5,000 man move. Well, a few hundred of them would show up driving the brigade's vehicles (armed with fuel cards to use at pumps that don't work, so the army would also have to transport in its own bulk fuel).
Well, in order to move 4,400 soldiers by bus in 48 hours, with a 1-day turnaround time, you would need 100 busses. Which is most of the FEMA effort right there. The available truck transportation would be hauling food, water, tents, portable kitchens, and other gear -- not troops.
Well, I think FEMA came up with 140 busses. You want to strip 70 percent of the FEMA effort to bring in National Guard? I didn't think so.
And then when the Brigade got there, it would take them nearly a day to set up. Where are you going to put them? You'd need an entire park or fairground, and you'd need to clear vagrants out of there. That's doable, but it takes time. And meanwhile, you've got 5,000 soldiers on the ground. Where are they going to crap, Ann? Did you consider that question?
No.
So you'd have to contract with portalet providers -- competing for the vendors with bidders from the city, county, churches, and neighboring cities and counties. Portable shower and latrine facilities can be trucked in from all over the country. But that takes time as well. Oh, and you might have to contract with Brown and Root. I can imagine the screeching and howling already.
Trust me. Brown and Root is good at this. If we're not contracting with Brown and Root, we're fools. They're even better if they can hire all Palestinians, Bosnians, and Philippinas.
Well, suppose you've overcome all these hurdles. Congratulations. You've only made it into the BSA.
How are you going to get troops into the flooded areas? Well, most of your truck assets still are loaded with gear for the first two days. That's assuming you don't have to make return trips to go back and get things A pretty tall assumption. Well, last I checked, light infantry doesn't have any boats or rafts in the inventory. In fact, nobody does, except for a few selected engineer units, such as MRBCs. I know of one such company that served in Iraq with us. Great group of soldiers. Except they're in Wisconsin. These boats would have to be trucked in, and would take days to get there at best. (Their prime movers couldn't go much over 50 mph, and even then that's pushing it with a heavy load.)
Would it have been a good idea to keep a mobile bridge company in the Delta area? Sure, in hindsight. But it ain't there now, Ann. And even then, the number of pontoon boats that would be available is pitiful compared to the need.
Hell, Ann, just how long do you think it takes for a unit to work its way through the phone roster and get the word out to report at a certain time? Think everyone sits by the phone just waiting for the call? It isn't like ordering a pizza. These guardsmen have families, family vacations in the summer, and jobs that frequently take them hours away from their Just how long it takes I'm keeping to myself, but it doesn't happen in the blink of an eye, obviously.
Watch for reporters framing their story mired in this kind of well-meaning muddleheadedness about logistics.
The help is on the way, and will be a sustained effort. We aren't going to show up with TOO many people at once, overwhelm the available space and vital logistics, and be unable to stay in force and sustain the effort. Louisiana guardsmen, we've got your back.
Splash, out
Jason
There's something called "logistics." Check it out.
You cannot just snap your fingers and make the military suddenly appear somewhere.
Nor can you legally send federal troops willy-nilly to shoot looters, courtesy of the Posse Comitatus act. You should know this, Ann. You're a lawyer by profession. You shouldn't need a dumb grunt to explain it to you.
But watch for much of our news commentary and public debate to predicate itself around a vast ignorance of logistical capacity and principals.
For instance: Suppose you got a brigade worth of troops (5,000 or so) available,. How are you going to support them? How will you transport them? Think organic trans is sufficient? Think again. Even at 100% operational readiness, a typical infantry battalion can only self transport perhaps a company at a time. And if every soldier is bringing a rucksack and a dufflebag, you're really talking about maybe two platoons. And unless you expect the unit to become a drain on local resources, every company is going to take a half truck or more of MREs and a half truck or more of bottled water, along with its own water trailers. I've seen it happen. I've done it. I've been a battalion S4 in combat, an HHC XO for dozens of major moves of a hundred miles or more, and an HHC company commander for six hurricane mobilizations.
Now, you can use busses. But only if you take busses away from the immediate mission of transporting people out of the most severely affected areas of New Orleans. Well, suppose a 44 passenger bus has a round trip of a half day between a National Guard armory in Texas. That bus can not even transport a platoon of soldiers in a single day (and will have to refuel somewhere.) But that same bus, if you keep it in New Orleans, can make as many as 8 or 10 trips back and forth, and evacuate maybe 600 to 800 people, assuming an hour round trip between an affected area and a safe area.
So which do you choose? My money's on the evac.
But suppose you stripped the evac effort dry and got enough busses to support a 5,000 man move. Well, a few hundred of them would show up driving the brigade's vehicles (armed with fuel cards to use at pumps that don't work, so the army would also have to transport in its own bulk fuel).
Well, in order to move 4,400 soldiers by bus in 48 hours, with a 1-day turnaround time, you would need 100 busses. Which is most of the FEMA effort right there. The available truck transportation would be hauling food, water, tents, portable kitchens, and other gear -- not troops.
Well, I think FEMA came up with 140 busses. You want to strip 70 percent of the FEMA effort to bring in National Guard? I didn't think so.
And then when the Brigade got there, it would take them nearly a day to set up. Where are you going to put them? You'd need an entire park or fairground, and you'd need to clear vagrants out of there. That's doable, but it takes time. And meanwhile, you've got 5,000 soldiers on the ground. Where are they going to crap, Ann? Did you consider that question?
No.
So you'd have to contract with portalet providers -- competing for the vendors with bidders from the city, county, churches, and neighboring cities and counties. Portable shower and latrine facilities can be trucked in from all over the country. But that takes time as well. Oh, and you might have to contract with Brown and Root. I can imagine the screeching and howling already.
Trust me. Brown and Root is good at this. If we're not contracting with Brown and Root, we're fools. They're even better if they can hire all Palestinians, Bosnians, and Philippinas.
Well, suppose you've overcome all these hurdles. Congratulations. You've only made it into the BSA.
How are you going to get troops into the flooded areas? Well, most of your truck assets still are loaded with gear for the first two days. That's assuming you don't have to make return trips to go back and get things A pretty tall assumption. Well, last I checked, light infantry doesn't have any boats or rafts in the inventory. In fact, nobody does, except for a few selected engineer units, such as MRBCs. I know of one such company that served in Iraq with us. Great group of soldiers. Except they're in Wisconsin. These boats would have to be trucked in, and would take days to get there at best. (Their prime movers couldn't go much over 50 mph, and even then that's pushing it with a heavy load.)
Would it have been a good idea to keep a mobile bridge company in the Delta area? Sure, in hindsight. But it ain't there now, Ann. And even then, the number of pontoon boats that would be available is pitiful compared to the need.
Hell, Ann, just how long do you think it takes for a unit to work its way through the phone roster and get the word out to report at a certain time? Think everyone sits by the phone just waiting for the call? It isn't like ordering a pizza. These guardsmen have families, family vacations in the summer, and jobs that frequently take them hours away from their Just how long it takes I'm keeping to myself, but it doesn't happen in the blink of an eye, obviously.
Watch for reporters framing their story mired in this kind of well-meaning muddleheadedness about logistics.
The help is on the way, and will be a sustained effort. We aren't going to show up with TOO many people at once, overwhelm the available space and vital logistics, and be unable to stay in force and sustain the effort. Louisiana guardsmen, we've got your back.
Splash, out
Jason
Comments:
Great post. Finally a voice of sanity. The post could be addressed to the ninnies at NRO Corner as well. I won't even talk about the left blogs and the media.
# posted by 
: 9:13 PM
: 9:13 PM
Jim in Chicago took the words right off my keyboard! Bad as I want to stay up on the news, have just had to turn my TV off because of all the whining that everything (security, water, food, transportation, medical assistance) wasn't taken care of the day after Katrina. None of them make mention of the loonies running around with guns shooting at the folks who're trying their best to help. Superman is just a comic book character, but I guess President Bush should have had him on hand... I'm just furious! I don't know whatever happened to common sense!
# posted by : 9:52 PM
: 9:52 PM
Jason:
While I totally agree with you on a lot of the reasons why things don't happen instantly, there are a couple of points that puzzle me, or where I think things could be done better. Mostly they apply to specialized equipment that would seem to be useful - particlularly boats and other floating assets.
1) Sure the MGB troops you worked with were a Guard unit from Wisconsin, but I have real trouble believing that there aren't any MGB assets in a division or corps engineer unit somewhere in Texas (or maybe Georgia). MGB components configured as rafts would be very good at moving people and supplies through a flood zone.
2) Don't most engineer units at least have rubber boats? If not they should.
3) The Marines and Navy have lots of things that float - I'm thinking of LCUs, LCMs and Amtracks here - shallow draught and can carry quite a bit. Again, it would seem a natural fit for this watery place.
4) Helicopter operations - so far I've not seen anything heavier than a Blackhawk - some Chinooks would he a lot more use for evacuating people 40 at a time instead of 12 at a time. Also, why aren't the choppers evacuating people from hospitals dropping off supplies on their way in?
5) Why aren't the busses bringing people out of NO arriving with a couple of water bottles on each seat?
I know that everyone involved is working hard (expecially the New Orleans cops - but they're working hard at looting...) but there seems to be a lack of creativity - people are responding with pays out of the book instead of exercising their initiative - and that initiative is supposed to be one of the great strenghts of America and especially the American military.
While I totally agree with you on a lot of the reasons why things don't happen instantly, there are a couple of points that puzzle me, or where I think things could be done better. Mostly they apply to specialized equipment that would seem to be useful - particlularly boats and other floating assets.
1) Sure the MGB troops you worked with were a Guard unit from Wisconsin, but I have real trouble believing that there aren't any MGB assets in a division or corps engineer unit somewhere in Texas (or maybe Georgia). MGB components configured as rafts would be very good at moving people and supplies through a flood zone.
2) Don't most engineer units at least have rubber boats? If not they should.
3) The Marines and Navy have lots of things that float - I'm thinking of LCUs, LCMs and Amtracks here - shallow draught and can carry quite a bit. Again, it would seem a natural fit for this watery place.
4) Helicopter operations - so far I've not seen anything heavier than a Blackhawk - some Chinooks would he a lot more use for evacuating people 40 at a time instead of 12 at a time. Also, why aren't the choppers evacuating people from hospitals dropping off supplies on their way in?
5) Why aren't the busses bringing people out of NO arriving with a couple of water bottles on each seat?
I know that everyone involved is working hard (expecially the New Orleans cops - but they're working hard at looting...) but there seems to be a lack of creativity - people are responding with pays out of the book instead of exercising their initiative - and that initiative is supposed to be one of the great strenghts of America and especially the American military.
# posted by : 11:34 AM
: 11:34 AM
Great post. I've been working in Supply Chain/Logistics for years and my first reaction was from that standpoint. Glad to see you put it into words the magnitude that goes into a situation of this size!
BD - Fair 'nuff - I hadn't seen any, but that might be because the TV kept showing the same Blackhawks, Jayhawks and Dolphins again and again....
Jason - thanks for elevating to the main 'blog. Just as background, I was once upon a time a sapper in an allied army, and had the pleasure of working with my US counterparts on several bridging exercises. Although I'm pretty much guessing here, I can't imagine that the Army took all of its MGB assets to Iraq - they're really bulky and there aren't all that many rivers over there.
I guess my larger point was about thinking outside the box and trying to use force multipliers. Jason made very good points about the logistical costs of putting boots on the ground (or in the bayou, as the case may be), which is why prioritization is so important. I know we all need to take TV and other media with a big bucket of salt, but I hate to see the US military bringing anything other then its "A" Game. Maybe this is a total misperception, in which case they need to work on the media game - embed some reporters to show the other side of the story. As a former reservist (or as me used to say 'Mo) I know what it's like to be shafted by the Regs, but I also know that a side benefit of having soldiers with civvie jobs is that a Reserve unit also has a whole host of skills and talents that a Reg unit can't match. We had guys who'd been running backhoes and dumps all day every day for 20 years - a young corporal, no matter how motivated, simply cannot match that level of skill.
Jason - thanks for elevating to the main 'blog. Just as background, I was once upon a time a sapper in an allied army, and had the pleasure of working with my US counterparts on several bridging exercises. Although I'm pretty much guessing here, I can't imagine that the Army took all of its MGB assets to Iraq - they're really bulky and there aren't all that many rivers over there.
I guess my larger point was about thinking outside the box and trying to use force multipliers. Jason made very good points about the logistical costs of putting boots on the ground (or in the bayou, as the case may be), which is why prioritization is so important. I know we all need to take TV and other media with a big bucket of salt, but I hate to see the US military bringing anything other then its "A" Game. Maybe this is a total misperception, in which case they need to work on the media game - embed some reporters to show the other side of the story. As a former reservist (or as me used to say 'Mo) I know what it's like to be shafted by the Regs, but I also know that a side benefit of having soldiers with civvie jobs is that a Reserve unit also has a whole host of skills and talents that a Reg unit can't match. We had guys who'd been running backhoes and dumps all day every day for 20 years - a young corporal, no matter how motivated, simply cannot match that level of skill.
# posted by : 7:53 PM
: 7:53 PM
Our amphib carriers have lots of boats. I hear on is on the way - may already be there.
The carriers and all major Navy ships have evaps for making water. Why wasn't one on scene earlier?
If electricity and air transport are critical why wasn't a CVN dispatched sooner? They can make a LOT of electricity and water.
The Navy carries its own logistics for 30 to 90 day deployments. Now I understand you would not necessisarily have the full air group aboard. So what? Use land based aircraft to supply air cover and let the air groups fly in as required. This could be done on the fly so to speak. In fact a carrier's air group flies to the carrier when it is deployed and flies off before home port is reached.
I do understand the Army's problems and as you point out the logistics are formidable.
My question still stands. Why is the Navy tardy?
I think it is another case of fighting the last war. It is assumed there will be time.
The Navy is supposed to be able to surge. Evidently storm surges were not in the plan.
The carriers and all major Navy ships have evaps for making water. Why wasn't one on scene earlier?
If electricity and air transport are critical why wasn't a CVN dispatched sooner? They can make a LOT of electricity and water.
The Navy carries its own logistics for 30 to 90 day deployments. Now I understand you would not necessisarily have the full air group aboard. So what? Use land based aircraft to supply air cover and let the air groups fly in as required. This could be done on the fly so to speak. In fact a carrier's air group flies to the carrier when it is deployed and flies off before home port is reached.
I do understand the Army's problems and as you point out the logistics are formidable.
My question still stands. Why is the Navy tardy?
I think it is another case of fighting the last war. It is assumed there will be time.
The Navy is supposed to be able to surge. Evidently storm surges were not in the plan.
Jason, this is exactly what I've been trying to tell people. That the amount of devastation involved means that the military must put together the logistical system to support both the troops they move into the area as well as the logistical system to begin supporting the immense population in need. This takes time.
Simon, the Navy has to make ships ready and then they must sail to the area.
Simon, the Navy has to make ships ready and then they must sail to the area.
Well, Amphibious groups travel in groups, obviously. And they do it out of Norfolk, Camp LeJeune, San Diego, Pearl Harbor, and Okinawa.
The ones in San Diego are going to have to make their way way south and then thread the Panama Canal.
The ones in Norfolk and Camp LeJeune would first have to wait until the storm passed them to the south, then sail all around Florida, and then all the way down the Florida Keys until they got past Key West before they could turn around and chart a beeline for New Orleans. I mean, jeez, do I really need to explain it to ya?
The ones in San Diego are going to have to make their way way south and then thread the Panama Canal.
The ones in Norfolk and Camp LeJeune would first have to wait until the storm passed them to the south, then sail all around Florida, and then all the way down the Florida Keys until they got past Key West before they could turn around and chart a beeline for New Orleans. I mean, jeez, do I really need to explain it to ya?
Granted all the points about logistics, etc. -- and without question the New Orleans and Louisiana governments are well-known to be corrupt and ineffective -- and the mainstream media remain thoroughly biased in their "reporting" -- however, these Homeland Security and FEMA bureaucrats have been sucking down billions and billions of dollars over the almost four years since 9/11 and this is the best that they can do?
# posted by : 11:40 AM
: 11:40 AM
Senior Thinking - I suppose your "innane post" comment is directed at the original post. Did you not read it? He laid out very basically what it takes to move a military unit; yet like some pseudo-jedi-master you wave it away with the intellectual equivalent of "these are not the answers I am looking for".
I have spent the last 18 years in the military, both enlisted and commissioned, in both the active Army and the National Guard. I was the SPC 4 sand-bagging the Mississipi in '93, and I am the logistician who has had to move, supply, and maintain everything from a platoon to a division in training and "for real" in Iraq. Your post not only demonstrates your ignorance of how military units (particularly NG units) are staged and function, but also the level of effort and time required to coordinate all of the moving pieces.
"All of it" is not sitting in one location, ready to go. They are not "staged that way". Rations and ammunition have to be drawn, fuel tankers have to be filled, and equipment has to be loaded. But I'll just end up re-iterating the original post if I continue.
I have spent the last 18 years in the military, both enlisted and commissioned, in both the active Army and the National Guard. I was the SPC 4 sand-bagging the Mississipi in '93, and I am the logistician who has had to move, supply, and maintain everything from a platoon to a division in training and "for real" in Iraq. Your post not only demonstrates your ignorance of how military units (particularly NG units) are staged and function, but also the level of effort and time required to coordinate all of the moving pieces.
"All of it" is not sitting in one location, ready to go. They are not "staged that way". Rations and ammunition have to be drawn, fuel tankers have to be filled, and equipment has to be loaded. But I'll just end up re-iterating the original post if I continue.
# posted by : 4:35 AM
: 4:35 AM
I'm curious, from a logistics point of view, why couldn't there have been an ongoing series of airdrops of food and water along with armed guards, in order to maintain basic survival at the Superdome and Convention Center?
I think that would have satisfied many if not most critics, and shown that FEMA and DHS are ready to meet the real needs of the people of the US should another breakdown of all state and local systmes happen again in a terrorist attack or other natural disaster..
I think that would have satisfied many if not most critics, and shown that FEMA and DHS are ready to meet the real needs of the people of the US should another breakdown of all state and local systmes happen again in a terrorist attack or other natural disaster..
# posted by : 9:23 PM
: 9:23 PM
Justthinking,
The Superdome had been supplied with about 2 days worth of food and water for its inhabitants (who were also supposed to bring there own). This would be most of Monday and Tuesday.
Virtually every one was evacuated by Thursday (only about 3,000 IIRC were left late Thursday.
You could not drop pallets of supplies, it would risk actually killing people (crushing them).
Dropping individual bottles and MRE's may have been a good idea. However these would have been scattered throughout the area.
Also, and someone correct me if I am wrong, the Superdome is covered with a dome (I understand the dome was breached?). Thus they would have had to be scattered through the area outside the dome, forcing people to leave its relative security. This still may have been a good idea.
As for the convention cener it is still confusing as to when the relevant authorities were actually notified about it, so I must reserve judgement.
The Superdome had been supplied with about 2 days worth of food and water for its inhabitants (who were also supposed to bring there own). This would be most of Monday and Tuesday.
Virtually every one was evacuated by Thursday (only about 3,000 IIRC were left late Thursday.
You could not drop pallets of supplies, it would risk actually killing people (crushing them).
Dropping individual bottles and MRE's may have been a good idea. However these would have been scattered throughout the area.
Also, and someone correct me if I am wrong, the Superdome is covered with a dome (I understand the dome was breached?). Thus they would have had to be scattered through the area outside the dome, forcing people to leave its relative security. This still may have been a good idea.
As for the convention cener it is still confusing as to when the relevant authorities were actually notified about it, so I must reserve judgement.
# posted by : 10:03 PM
: 10:03 PM
Good post. I only convoyed in the Guard but even my E-4 eyes could see the tremendous preparations of loading, organizing, refueling, and arriving. And that was daylight along well-maintained roads.
But I guess when your only experience in the logistics of moving is piling into the mini-van with hand puppets, bongoes, and bongs (and don't even think about worrying about showers) to head to the protest-of-the-month, I guess it is shocking to find that military units and supplies don't just appear when you think they should arrive.
Brian J. Dunn
But I guess when your only experience in the logistics of moving is piling into the mini-van with hand puppets, bongoes, and bongs (and don't even think about worrying about showers) to head to the protest-of-the-month, I guess it is shocking to find that military units and supplies don't just appear when you think they should arrive.
Brian J. Dunn
Great post, one point lacking is the destruction of infrastructure, particulaerly US 10. A vessel with desalization followed the storm in. But they arrived on Friday, as expected. You could hardly expect a ship to be in those waters in the middle of the storm. Now to other questions:
1. Why would an airport construction battalion need a raft?
Interestingly enough the medium bridge unit in Connecticut has only one two-man boat.
2. Helicopters have a rather large support groups for each machine. The Coast Guard hides this by having them on ships. (a bonus for Navy and CG)
3. Almost every ship currently supporting this effort were being refit when the storm developed, kudos to Newport News and Baltimore (USS Comfort) for the rush job. By the way, bladders of water were being delivered by the Navy on Thursday.
4. By the way for the kinds of work they do and temperatures of the city each soldier should have 3 liters of water a day. That is fifteen thousand bottles a day for our brigade. That is just less than 20 tons a day and you have to account for waste, just for water.
5. Airdrops in the best of times stink (and we are very good at this sort of thing). I have been on the recieving end of an airdrop, I am grateful to be alive (one 'shute failed). Imagine the flak if a couple Red Cross workers are killed in an airdrop. Somewhere out there is tape of an airdrop gone screwy at the Paris Air show. Since no one died it is hilarious (watching a couple of driverless Humvees being radomly trashed on their palettes is funny)
5. Finally, air traffic control for most of this region was down. We needed to get serveral AWACS in before we could fly a lot of heliocopters. I think this was not expected so basically they used Orions from the Truman, if my friends are correct.
1. Why would an airport construction battalion need a raft?
Interestingly enough the medium bridge unit in Connecticut has only one two-man boat.
2. Helicopters have a rather large support groups for each machine. The Coast Guard hides this by having them on ships. (a bonus for Navy and CG)
3. Almost every ship currently supporting this effort were being refit when the storm developed, kudos to Newport News and Baltimore (USS Comfort) for the rush job. By the way, bladders of water were being delivered by the Navy on Thursday.
4. By the way for the kinds of work they do and temperatures of the city each soldier should have 3 liters of water a day. That is fifteen thousand bottles a day for our brigade. That is just less than 20 tons a day and you have to account for waste, just for water.
5. Airdrops in the best of times stink (and we are very good at this sort of thing). I have been on the recieving end of an airdrop, I am grateful to be alive (one 'shute failed). Imagine the flak if a couple Red Cross workers are killed in an airdrop. Somewhere out there is tape of an airdrop gone screwy at the Paris Air show. Since no one died it is hilarious (watching a couple of driverless Humvees being radomly trashed on their palettes is funny)
5. Finally, air traffic control for most of this region was down. We needed to get serveral AWACS in before we could fly a lot of heliocopters. I think this was not expected so basically they used Orions from the Truman, if my friends are correct.
# posted by : 4:38 PM
: 4:38 PM
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