Monday, June 20, 2005
Thinking of Real Estate?
Real estate, in some areas, is about as risky a proposition as it has ever been. And there are a lot of lambs lining up for the slaughter in some areas like California and South Florida (where I'm renting, chicken that I am, although I do own a small amount of the Vanguard REIT Index because that's just the kind of die hard asset allocator that I am).
A lot of people are going to get disappointed. And the higher real estate prices soar, the riskier the whole house of cards gets, and the more difficult it will be to ignore the siren song of your friends getting rich.
And so Real Estate newsletter author John T. Reed seems to be providing an invaluable service with his "ratings of investment gurus" page.
For example:
Outstanding!
His evisceration of that insufferable hack Robert "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" Kiyosaki is especially noteworthy.
A lot of people are going to get disappointed. And the higher real estate prices soar, the riskier the whole house of cards gets, and the more difficult it will be to ignore the siren song of your friends getting rich.
And so Real Estate newsletter author John T. Reed seems to be providing an invaluable service with his "ratings of investment gurus" page.
For example:
[Wade]Cook is a best-selling author (Wall Street Money Machine) and also wrote Real Estate Money Machine previously. He is one of a number of best-selling financial authors who make that list, in large part, a rogue’s gallery. The many people who buy Cook’s books and attend his seminars are idiots. I have talked to some on the phone. When they ask about him, I recite all his legal troubles, including his bankruptcies. They then ask what I think of his latest book. Like I said, idiots.
Outstanding!
His evisceration of that insufferable hack Robert "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" Kiyosaki is especially noteworthy.
Comments:
Jason,
Preach, brother preach. I too see some frothy areas of real estate, particularly in the Miami, California, and to a lesser extent, New York and Hawaii.
The latter two, I can reconcile, since they are desireable areas on an island. Population growth is exponential, while the land is fixed well, you have yourself increasing demand for a scarce resource, thus higher prices.
California on the other hand is one of the largest states in the union. No shortage of land there. I looked at some of the multifamily cap rates, and it is absurdity beyond absurditiy. You could easily spend 4, 5, or 6x what you would for the same rental income in Texas.
Miami just screams pure speculation and the naysayers claiming "It's different this time" isn't comforting either.
I think people are just amazed with the power of leverage, much like they were with margin and options in the dot com era.
I'll caveat that with saying that mainstream America probably won't be badly affected by localized housing gyrations. I also like REITs a lot, although you have to know which ones are good and which ones to avoid. I think some mortgage REITs are solid, and apartments REITs should have pricing power should a collapse in real estate come to fruition.
I also hate Robert Kiyosaki. I could write a summation of his books in 3 paragraphs.
Craig signing out over at www.anathema-incarnate.blogspot.com
Preach, brother preach. I too see some frothy areas of real estate, particularly in the Miami, California, and to a lesser extent, New York and Hawaii.
The latter two, I can reconcile, since they are desireable areas on an island. Population growth is exponential, while the land is fixed well, you have yourself increasing demand for a scarce resource, thus higher prices.
California on the other hand is one of the largest states in the union. No shortage of land there. I looked at some of the multifamily cap rates, and it is absurdity beyond absurditiy. You could easily spend 4, 5, or 6x what you would for the same rental income in Texas.
Miami just screams pure speculation and the naysayers claiming "It's different this time" isn't comforting either.
I think people are just amazed with the power of leverage, much like they were with margin and options in the dot com era.
I'll caveat that with saying that mainstream America probably won't be badly affected by localized housing gyrations. I also like REITs a lot, although you have to know which ones are good and which ones to avoid. I think some mortgage REITs are solid, and apartments REITs should have pricing power should a collapse in real estate come to fruition.
I also hate Robert Kiyosaki. I could write a summation of his books in 3 paragraphs.
Craig signing out over at www.anathema-incarnate.blogspot.com
I've found John T Reed to be insuffereably snide about anything other than his own and some close friends.
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Is there any data on how many people Robert Kiyosaki has actually helped?
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