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Saturday, March 19, 2005

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Instapundit, via That Liberal Media, is hosting an informative debate over the debunking of the Lancet claim that the war in Iraq has killed over 100,000 civilians.

He also links to a Slate article in which Fred Kaplan has very approving things to say about Iraq Body Count.

My take, longtime readers will recall, is that Iraq Body Count lies about its own methodology.

Glenn Reynolds will generate a lot of traffic to the IBC site, which does have certain limited use. But I want my criticism of IBC.net entered into the public discussion.

Iraq Body Count's numbers still seem somewhat inflated to me, although it's true that there will have been a good deal of undocumented deaths by now in areas of heavy fighting, such as Fallujah.

There will have been an even larger number of guerillas killed in action by coalition forces whose family members are swearing up and down are innocent.

And who are lying through their teeth.

The Lancet numbers, estimating 100,000 odd Iraqi dead (while assuming, for reasons I can't imagine, a roughly symmetrical bell curve distribution) are absurdly high. Laughably high. For the study to be true, it would have to have assumed that the average coalition serviceman killed around 0.5 to 0.7 Iraqi civilians or so during OIF I, depending on how you weight the participants of OIF II.

Which, given an 6-to-1 teeth-to-tail ratio (it takes approximately 6 support troops to maintain one combat arms soldier in the field) means that the AVERAGE combat soldier would have had to have killed between 3 and 3.5 civilians.

My Battalion was in contact almost every day in a pretty busy city, with about 400 combat arms troops, plus support. Believe me, we sure as Hell didn't kill 1200 Iraqi civilians over there.

In order to keep up with Lancet's average score, we would have had to 100 Iraqis per month. Or more than three Iraqis per day.

As Bill Cosby would say:

"RIIIIIIIIIIIIIIGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHT."

The Lancet survey fail every test of common sense. It would have been the laugh line of the month around my unit. And as is being made increasingly clear, fail test after test of statistical methodology.*

Splash, out

Jason


* Why on earth would any hack statmonger want to deliberate exclude the most violent area of Iraq when trying to calculate, well, the level of violence in Iraq? I mean, that's like trying to explain stock market behavior in 1998-2002 while excluding the Nasdaq. Explaining Babe Ruth's slugging percentage while excluding his home runs.

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They have updated their website to say that they include indirect causes. I don't consider this lying. Just inaccurate. It would be more fair of them to list who killed the civilians. I'm very sure more have been killed by the terrorists than by US Military. They include even results of starvation and water impurity which is very subjective given that Saddam hid food and water from his people at times.
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Sincerely,

Mark

p.s. I like to take a look at other blogs to get some ideas as to how I am going to form mine. make money add your link is related to my future blog building.
 
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Sincerely,

Mark

p.s. I like to take a look at other blogs to get some ideas as to how I am going to form mine. make money with adsense is related to my future blog building.
 
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Just thought I would check out your blog.
I am new to blogging. I hope you don't mind me posting to your blog. If you are interested in checking out my blog and making a post that would be great.

I have a comparison hosting web site/blog. It pretty much covers ##WEB HOSTING## related stuff.


Thanks,
Ed
 
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Sincerely,

Mark

p.s. I like to take a look at other blogs to get some ideas as to how I am going to form mine. how to make money with google adsense is related to my future blog building.
 
Well I just got back from the gym and I am beat. I am currently doing some research on small business web hosting services and stumbled across your blog. Which cracks me up really. The internet can certainly land you off base sometimes. Even though this post is not completely related I think it is a cool blog. I have read back through the archives and lots of people make some very good points. Well I have been on-line forever it seems. I need to continue to plug away at small business web hosting services. If you have the energy swing by small business web hosting services. I try to update my site weekly and maybe you will see something you like. I already snagged your URL and put it in my favorites. If you do not mind I will be back again. Great job!
 
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Sincerely,

Mark

p.s. I like to take a look at other blogs to get some ideas as to how I am going to form mine. make money at home free is related to my future blog building.
 
I love your blog Blogger. How long has it been on-line? Reason I ask is I am doing a ton of work in the area of commercial web hosting and will probably end up starting a blog of my own. Funny how the internet brought me here when I was doing searches on commercial web hosting. Oh well, I am glad it did. Keep up the great blogging and I am sure I will visit this post again!!
 
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Sincerely,

Mark

p.s. I like to take a look at other blogs to get some ideas as to how I am going to form mine. central.net ebook ebook ebookstore make money palm is related to my future blog building.
 
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Sincerely,

Mark

p.s. I like to take a look at other blogs to get some ideas as to how I am going to form mine. make money add your link is related to my future blog building.
 
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blog to my favorites list so I can come back later on and read some more stuff. Well I guess I should get back to researching web hosting company for small business.
Even though my search is not on this post I am glad I came across your blog. Keep blogging away!
 
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Sincerely,

Mark

p.s. I like to take a look at other blogs to get some ideas as to how I am going to form mine. make money at home free is related to my future blog building.
 
What up Blogger! I just finished up a ten hour work day and decided to kick back and do some surfing. So I grabbed myself a drink and stumbled across your blog while doing some research on lowcost web hosting for a upcoming project I am doing. Well even though this post isn’t what I was looking for I really enjoyed reading your blog. Your doing a great job and please keep up the good work. Lots of people do not keep their blogs up to date :0) There are some very interesting view points stated here. Anyways I am going to grab the bull by the horns and continue to plug away at lowcost web hosting. I have already bookmarked your blog. You many want to visit me at lowcost web hosting. You never know you might see something you like! Again great job.
 
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Sincerely,

Mark

p.s. I like to take a look at other blogs to get some ideas as to how I am going to form mine. make money with adsense is related to my future blog building.
 
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Sincerely,

Mark

p.s. I like to take a look at other blogs to get some ideas as to how I am going to form mine. how to make money with google adsense is related to my future blog building.
 
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Sincerely,

Mark

p.s. I like to take a look at other blogs to get some ideas as to how I am going to form mine. make money with adsense is related to my future blog building.
 
Hello there, I was recently doing a search through blogs for the keyphrase make money at home free. I happened to come across yours even though it wasn't particularly related to what I searched for. I figured I wouldn't mind contributing to your blog by commenting it. I've been quite busy to work on my blog lately but I am interested in topics being generally related to what I search for. I know you may not think this is an appropriate post to your blog, however I would just like to compliment you on your blog and I wish you well in future endeavors with it,

Sincerely,

Mark

p.s. I like to take a look at other blogs to get some ideas as to how I am going to form mine. make money at home free is related to my future blog building.
 
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Hello there, I was recently doing a search through blogs for the keyphrase make money with adsense. I happened to come across yours even though it wasn't particularly related to what I searched for. I figured I wouldn't mind contributing to your blog by commenting it. I've been quite busy to work on my blog lately but I am interested in topics being generally related to what I search for. I know you may not think this is an appropriate post to your blog, however I would just like to compliment you on your blog and I wish you well in future endeavors with it,

Sincerely,

Mark

p.s. I like to take a look at other blogs to get some ideas as to how I am going to form mine. make money with adsense is related to my future blog building.
 
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Sincerely,

Mark

p.s. I like to take a look at other blogs to get some ideas as to how I am going to form mine. make money add your link is related to my future blog building.
 
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Sincerely,

Mark

p.s. I like to take a look at other blogs to get some ideas as to how I am going to form mine. make money at home free is related to my future blog building.
 
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Sincerely,

Mark

p.s. I like to take a look at other blogs to get some ideas as to how I am going to form mine. central.net ebook ebook ebookstore make money palm is related to my future blog building.
 
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If you do not mind I will snag your blog and put it in my favorites. I read a ton of stuff on here that interested me. Keep blogging away :-)
 
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Sincerely,

Mark

p.s. I like to take a look at other blogs to get some ideas as to how I am going to form mine. make money add your link is related to my future blog building.
 
Well this blog certainly is not about web hosting company for small business. What the heck! I guess the internet can play some tricks on us sometimes. I have been on-line for two hours
researching web hosting company for small business and came tumbling across your blog. I LOVE IT! I needed a break from web hosting company for small business anyways :-) If you don't mind I want to add your
blog to my favorites list so I can come back later on and read some more stuff. Well I guess I should get back to researching web hosting company for small business.
Even though my search is not on this post I am glad I came across your blog. Keep blogging away!
 
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Sincerely,

Mark

p.s. I like to take a look at other blogs to get some ideas as to how I am going to form mine. make money add your link is related to my future blog building.
 
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Sad to say I just got back from a bowling tournament and decided to log in and do some websurfing. Blogger I love your blog. I had some very good laughs. I am doing a paper on web hosting company for small business and have been downloading information for the last hour. I don’t know how I came across this post but I am glad I did. It has set me back a little because I have spent the last hour reading your archives. If you don’t mind I would like to add you to my favorites so I can back again and read some more. Well I need to get back to web hosting company for small business. I am almost finished with it. Great job.
p.s some very good points on your blog
 
Hello there, I was recently doing a search through blogs for the keyphrase central.net ebook ebook ebookstore make money palm. I happened to come across yours even though it wasn't particularly related to what I searched for. I figured I wouldn't mind contributing to your blog by commenting it. I've been quite busy to work on my blog lately but I am interested in topics being generally related to what I search for. I know you may not think this is an appropriate post to your blog, however I would just like to compliment you on your blog and I wish you well in future endeavors with it,

Sincerely,

Mark

p.s. I like to take a look at other blogs to get some ideas as to how I am going to form mine. central.net ebook ebook ebookstore make money palm is related to my future blog building.
 
I love your blog Blogger. How long has it been on-line? Reason I ask is I am doing a ton of work in the area of best web hosting company and will probably end up starting a blog of my own. Funny how the internet brought me here when I was doing searches on best web hosting company. Oh well, I am glad it did. Keep up the great blogging and I am sure I will visit this post again!!
 
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Sad to say I just got back from a bowling tournament and decided to log in and do some websurfing. Blogger I love your blog. I had some very good laughs. I am doing a paper on web space hosting and have been downloading information for the last hour. I don’t know how I came across this post but I am glad I did. It has set me back a little because I have spent the last hour reading your archives. If you don’t mind I would like to add you to my favorites so I can back again and read some more. Well I need to get back to web space hosting. I am almost finished with it. Great job.
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Well I just got back from the gym and I am beat. I am currently doing some research on web hosting company for small business and stumbled across your blog. Which cracks me up really. The internet can certainly land you off base sometimes. Even though this post is not completely related I think it is a cool blog. I have read back through the archives and lots of people make some very good points. Well I have been on-line forever it seems. I need to continue to plug away at web hosting company for small business. If you have the energy swing by web hosting company for small business. I try to update my site weekly and maybe you will see something you like. I already snagged your URL and put it in my favorites. If you do not mind I will be back again. Great job!
 
Well I just got back from the gym and I am beat. I am currently doing some research on lowcost web hosting and stumbled across your blog. Which cracks me up really. The internet can certainly land you off base sometimes. Even though this post is not completely related I think it is a cool blog. I have read back through the archives and lots of people make some very good points. Well I have been on-line forever it seems. I need to continue to plug away at lowcost web hosting. If you have the energy swing by lowcost web hosting. I try to update my site weekly and maybe you will see something you like. I already snagged your URL and put it in my favorites. If you do not mind I will be back again. Great job!
 
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If you do not mind I will snag your blog and put it in my favorites. I read a ton of stuff on here that interested me. Keep blogging away :-)
 
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If you do not mind I will snag your blog and put it in my favorites. I read a ton of stuff on here that interested me. Keep blogging away :-)
 
Sad to say I just got back from a bowling tournament and decided to log in and do some websurfing. Blogger I love your blog. I had some very good laughs. I am doing a paper on commercial web hosting and have been downloading information for the last hour. I don’t know how I came across this post but I am glad I did. It has set me back a little because I have spent the last hour reading your archives. If you don’t mind I would like to add you to my favorites so I can back again and read some more. Well I need to get back to commercial web hosting. I am almost finished with it. Great job.
p.s some very good points on your blog
 
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