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Saturday, January 15, 2005

Shinseki 
Kevin Murphy at Funmurphy's thinks I presented a better argument defending Rumsfeld than Donald Sensing did critiqueing him. Which a high complement indeed, as I think very highly of Mr. Sensing.

Anyway, Funmurphy takes me up on General Shinseki, who I believe enjoys Most Favored Source status over at the New Yorker on the sly, and continues:

And I for one am getting a little tired of the whole "Shenseki warned us we'd need a lot more troops" for the simple reason that Shenseki's intent wasn't an honest assessment but just another in a long list of deliberately setting the requirements too high for action to occur. The Army doesn't have the manpower to sustain the force levels Shenseki said it would take to take and hold Iraq - it can barely sustain the levels we are using.

He and his Army predecessors always required too much and threw up too many roadblocks throughout the Clinton presidency and so the Army never took action -- it was the Navy and Airforce in successful actions in Bosnia and Kosovo, and the Navy in fruitlless cruise missile strikes in Sudan and Afganistan. In Kosovo, when finally ordered to send in Apaches, the Army fiddled around with force protection and training issues long enough to keep their precious helicopters out of harm's way.


It pains me to say it, because Shinseki is a good man, and a fellow Hawai'i guy. But switching the whole Army to that French hat wasn't a hot idea, either.

Splash, out

Jason

Comments:
Look dude, I for one would probably be the last person to defend Shenseki, but the realities just don't match up with this one.

The facts are pretty simple...the former CENTCOM commander, Marine Gen. Zinni's plan for doing exactly what they did called for higher troops. Called for a lot of things that if done would have provided a different thing. Do a search and you'll find it. It's a good read into the realities.

The fact is that CENTCOM's original plan was designed not only around invading Iraq, but providing security, change of government, and eventual Iraqisation.

Rummy's plan was only centered around invasion. Which of course could have been done with fewer troops. Col. MacGregor suggested 50k. But of course his advice included a quick seisure of the capitol. Leaving the Iraqi army in place, and having as small as a foot print as possible.

Both plans would have worked fine. CENTCOM's original would have provided the 450k needed to secure the country and provide the people with order, and have the force necessary to deal with the insurgents. MacGregor's plan would have used a different approach by having a smaller foot print, utilizing the Iraqi army for security...etc...etc.

But Rummy followed his own rules. He's over his head, and has been. He lacks the ability to self judge. He believes he's never wrong, never made a mistake...and that is dangerous. He half-assed this.

And what was Shenseki doing? Following the party line? Well...yes and no. He was supporting the battle plan that was in place and engineered for this issue. He was supporting his Generals...and by the way...supporting the former CENTCOM commander...a Marine.

I for one don't think you can call Shenseki anything but what he is...there is no evidence to support that "favorite son" nonsense, or to say he was supporting some Army cultural aversion to war. He was supporting the status quo yes...but that is the point in the end.

Why was Shenseki basically fired? Because he didn't support Rummy's idea of transformation. To Rummy Transformation is political. He is buying the BS. There is no real transformation. And he wanted to do more with less...sometimes you can't do that. Rummy belives in techobabble. He doesn't understand that it takes troops to hold and secure terrain...missiles and percission guided nonsense can only kill...it can not protect or secure. And it can't control.

Shenseki disagreed. Rightfully so. And the proof is in the pudding isn't it. That is what makes the arguement right...not the person who made it. But the fact that history proved it. There are a lot of Generals who said the same thing...and they were dismissed. The beauty is some haven't sought out the spot light. Some have just said their piece and moved on...like Zinni.

No...Shenseki is a lot of things...but on this one his is right...and that is it. You can pick it apart all the want to...but that doesn't change the fact that his suggested course of action was a correct on...and the one we went with was wrong.

As far as the Beret thing...I have to admit I think it was a bad move too. So was the Stryker. But I understand the Stryker decision for what it was...an attempt at a Medium size force that went horribly wrong by politics and the Iron Triangle...but that is normal.

The beret things is bad. And I spoke out against it when it was on the table. The only shining light is that I think the 75th Inf Reg. (Rangers) look better with a sand beret anyway...plus it puts them closer to the British SAS model, which I think they are more like anyway.

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