Sunday, January 09, 2005
Boots on the ground
The calls for Rumsfeld's head are getting louder. And dumber.
The Weekly Standard is now enumerating the reasons why Rumsfeld must go:
Huh? Look, the acme of skill is to do this without fighting. The aim was to separate Iraqi regular army units from the regime. We were actually largely able to do this. Entire divisions remained irrelevant to the fight because they knew that if they stayed away from the battle, they could survive.
Further, Kagan has no idea what deals were cut with these generals using back channels.
Look, we toppled Saddam Hussein with far LESS killing. Isn't that a good thing? Could Kagan have brought these soldiers back from the dead?
Just how many troops does Kagan think it would have taken to guard all these dumps? Assuming, of course, that we could even have known where they were all located.
Also, does Kagan really think Saddam Hussein controlled all of them? If so, he doesn't understand anything.
All the Iraqi tribes and clans amassed large ammunition stocks of their own, even under Saddam Hussein. I'm talking about hundreds of mortar shells, artillery shells, landmines, machine guns, and RPGs at a time, which are buried in the back yards of sheikhs and those loyal to them all over the country.
The clans, you see, were very nervous about a civil war, even down to the interclan level within provinces and cities. Saddam Hussein managed to keep a lid on clan v. clan warfare within the Sunni community. But the sheikhs had to plan for after Saddam, too. And they did.
It's foolish to suppose that simply forming a ring around the ammunition dumps would have prevented an insurgency. There is no problem getting explosives in Iraq, even without tapping the official government stores.
Well, we did just that, genius, if you'll recall. Coalition forces were very quick to occupy the oil well regions and prevent the massive sabotage campaign that many before the war feared. The coalition was overwhelmingly successful in so doing.
By way of further example, we were quick to occupy and defend such vital electrical infrastructure as Haditha dam. I know because I was on top of that dam in May of 2003. My battalion drew the mission to defend it.
So as usual, Rumsfeld was way ahead of his critics.
Most of the sabatoge has come not from targeting nodes, but lines. The attacks have largely been against the thousands of miles of pipeline and power cables running through the desert.
Well, how many troops does this guy think it would take to garrison these lines?
500,000 U.S. troops would not be enough. A million wouldn't be enough to do everything we had to do, PLUS guard the pipelines and power lines. Where would the troops have come from? Kagan is dreaming. Further, it would have been a foolish deployment, dispersing strength and combat power all over the country, in such a way that companies could not reinforce and could not provide mutual support. Every guardpost would become an easy target. We would invite MORE attacks. Not fewer.
Assumes facts not in evidence. There is no reason to believe that more US troops out standing in the desert guarding power cables, two shifts a day, plus support troops, would have prevented the development of insurgent safe havens in Najaf and Falluja.
Pardon me, but would that largely be a function of the SAINTED Colin Powell at the State Department leaning on Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan, and Iran to control their borders?
What does Kagan think we should have done? Sent another 500,000 troops or so just to secure the borders?
From where? Shall we strip North Korea?
If the U.S. Army had begun expanding in 2001, we would have been able to:
Why is major league baseball played at a lower level in an expansion year?
This is just a stupid assertion. The Abrams Doctrine designed the Army to require large scale reserve callups for any major military undertaking. Simply expanding the size of the military by adding a few brigades would not have done so. Besides, what's wrong with the mobiliation of reservists?
It's clear to me that we should have mobilized MORE reservists from the IRR during OIF I to avoid disrupting follow-on units.
Immediately? Well, how many troops is he talking about?
This is a problem in some MOSs, such as military police units. That's why we need to immediately start converting other units from MOSs in less demand, such as Field Artillery, into Military Police units, particularly in the reserves.
What's that? Rumsfeld's already doing that? We've been working on that for a year already?
NEBBERMIND!!!!!!!!!!
Wanna help troops? Bitchslap the cocktail-swilling milquetoasts on the editorial page of the New York Times who are so easily spooked they want to postpone the elections in Iraq, and the defeatist mopes at The Nation who as recently as October were pushing for a cut-and-run by the New Year. Publicly excoriate them. Make them out to be the fools that they are. Commit the nation to winning.
And worry less about what the insurgents are doing to us and worry more about what we're going to do to the insurgents.
It's clear that Kagan doesn't quite know what the military has or has not done. Nor does he offer a productive plan to utilize additional troops he thinks we need.
I tell you, there were no proposals on the table to expand the Army by enough troops to take on the missions he delineates. All of them defensive missions, by the way. Not one idea about how to reach out and clobber the insurgent.
What a loser.
Yeah, he killed the Paladin boondoggle.
I tell you, if there's one thing commanders in light infantry urban counterinsurgency struggles need more of, it's self-propelled 155mm howitzers.
Look, the Secretary of Defense has a responsibility to look forward 10 or 20 years. Wouldn't we have been better off, in 1918, had the Secretary of War been planning for WWII instead of WWI? The seeds of blitzkrieg warfare had already been planted by then.
It may come to pass, a decade hence, that the transformations Rumsfeld has been pushing for - and others like them - are godsends. It's too early to tell. But we should not be so obsessed with this war that we neglect to plan to fight and win the next.
If there is a case to be made for Rumsfeld's departure, it's not that his reforms are wrong. It would be that Rumsfeld is now ineffective, for whatever reasons, at carrying out the President's agenda for the military.
But as long as Rumsfeld has the confidence of both the President and the troops - and he does - then he belongs in that post.
Splash, out
Jason
The Weekly Standard is now enumerating the reasons why Rumsfeld must go:
With more troops in Iraq during and immediately after the war, we would have been able to do the following things that we did not do:
* Capture or kill thousands of Iraqi soldiers who were at that time still concentrated in combat units and had not yet melted back into the countryside with their weapons and their skills.
Huh? Look, the acme of skill is to do this without fighting. The aim was to separate Iraqi regular army units from the regime. We were actually largely able to do this. Entire divisions remained irrelevant to the fight because they knew that if they stayed away from the battle, they could survive.
Further, Kagan has no idea what deals were cut with these generals using back channels.
Look, we toppled Saddam Hussein with far LESS killing. Isn't that a good thing? Could Kagan have brought these soldiers back from the dead?
* Guard the scores of enormous ammunition dumps from which the insurgents have drawn the vast majority of their weapons, ammunition, and explosives.
Just how many troops does Kagan think it would have taken to guard all these dumps? Assuming, of course, that we could even have known where they were all located.
Also, does Kagan really think Saddam Hussein controlled all of them? If so, he doesn't understand anything.
All the Iraqi tribes and clans amassed large ammunition stocks of their own, even under Saddam Hussein. I'm talking about hundreds of mortar shells, artillery shells, landmines, machine guns, and RPGs at a time, which are buried in the back yards of sheikhs and those loyal to them all over the country.
The clans, you see, were very nervous about a civil war, even down to the interclan level within provinces and cities. Saddam Hussein managed to keep a lid on clan v. clan warfare within the Sunni community. But the sheikhs had to plan for after Saddam, too. And they did.
It's foolish to suppose that simply forming a ring around the ammunition dumps would have prevented an insurgency. There is no problem getting explosives in Iraq, even without tapping the official government stores.
* Secure critical oil and electrical infrastructure that the insurgents subsequently attacked, setting back the economic and political recovery of Iraq.
Well, we did just that, genius, if you'll recall. Coalition forces were very quick to occupy the oil well regions and prevent the massive sabotage campaign that many before the war feared. The coalition was overwhelmingly successful in so doing.
By way of further example, we were quick to occupy and defend such vital electrical infrastructure as Haditha dam. I know because I was on top of that dam in May of 2003. My battalion drew the mission to defend it.
So as usual, Rumsfeld was way ahead of his critics.
Most of the sabatoge has come not from targeting nodes, but lines. The attacks have largely been against the thousands of miles of pipeline and power cables running through the desert.
Well, how many troops does this guy think it would take to garrison these lines?
500,000 U.S. troops would not be enough. A million wouldn't be enough to do everything we had to do, PLUS guard the pipelines and power lines. Where would the troops have come from? Kagan is dreaming. Further, it would have been a foolish deployment, dispersing strength and combat power all over the country, in such a way that companies could not reinforce and could not provide mutual support. Every guardpost would become an easy target. We would invite MORE attacks. Not fewer.
* Prevent the development of insurgent safe havens in Najaf and Falluja, or at least disrupt them at a much earlier stage of formation.
Assumes facts not in evidence. There is no reason to believe that more US troops out standing in the desert guarding power cables, two shifts a day, plus support troops, would have prevented the development of insurgent safe havens in Najaf and Falluja.
* Work to interdict the infiltration of foreign fighters across Iraq's borders.
Pardon me, but would that largely be a function of the SAINTED Colin Powell at the State Department leaning on Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan, and Iran to control their borders?
What does Kagan think we should have done? Sent another 500,000 troops or so just to secure the borders?
From where? Shall we strip North Korea?
If the U.S. Army had begun expanding in 2001, we would have been able to:
* Establish reasonable rotation plans for our soldiers that did not require repeatedly extending tours of duty beyond one year.
Why is major league baseball played at a lower level in an expansion year?
* Avoid the need to activate reservists involuntarily.
This is just a stupid assertion. The Abrams Doctrine designed the Army to require large scale reserve callups for any major military undertaking. Simply expanding the size of the military by adding a few brigades would not have done so. Besides, what's wrong with the mobiliation of reservists?
It's clear to me that we should have mobilized MORE reservists from the IRR during OIF I to avoid disrupting follow-on units.
* Dramatically reduce the frequency with which soldiers return from one year-long tour only to be sent immediately on another.
Immediately? Well, how many troops is he talking about?
This is a problem in some MOSs, such as military police units. That's why we need to immediately start converting other units from MOSs in less demand, such as Field Artillery, into Military Police units, particularly in the reserves.
What's that? Rumsfeld's already doing that? We've been working on that for a year already?
NEBBERMIND!!!!!!!!!!
* Let the troops that would still have been overstrained know that help really was on the way.
Wanna help troops? Bitchslap the cocktail-swilling milquetoasts on the editorial page of the New York Times who are so easily spooked they want to postpone the elections in Iraq, and the defeatist mopes at The Nation who as recently as October were pushing for a cut-and-run by the New Year. Publicly excoriate them. Make them out to be the fools that they are. Commit the nation to winning.
And worry less about what the insurgents are doing to us and worry more about what we're going to do to the insurgents.
The U.S. military did not do these things because of Rumsfeld's choices.
It's clear that Kagan doesn't quite know what the military has or has not done. Nor does he offer a productive plan to utilize additional troops he thinks we need.
I tell you, there were no proposals on the table to expand the Army by enough troops to take on the missions he delineates. All of them defensive missions, by the way. Not one idea about how to reach out and clobber the insurgent.
What a loser.
He chose to protect a military transformation program that is designed to fight wars radically different from the one in which we are engaged.
Yeah, he killed the Paladin boondoggle.
I tell you, if there's one thing commanders in light infantry urban counterinsurgency struggles need more of, it's self-propelled 155mm howitzers.
Look, the Secretary of Defense has a responsibility to look forward 10 or 20 years. Wouldn't we have been better off, in 1918, had the Secretary of War been planning for WWII instead of WWI? The seeds of blitzkrieg warfare had already been planted by then.
It may come to pass, a decade hence, that the transformations Rumsfeld has been pushing for - and others like them - are godsends. It's too early to tell. But we should not be so obsessed with this war that we neglect to plan to fight and win the next.
If there is a case to be made for Rumsfeld's departure, it's not that his reforms are wrong. It would be that Rumsfeld is now ineffective, for whatever reasons, at carrying out the President's agenda for the military.
But as long as Rumsfeld has the confidence of both the President and the troops - and he does - then he belongs in that post.
Splash, out
Jason
Comments:
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I agree with your comments that Rumsfeld is ahead of the curve. Also, I sense partisan politics at play. As Chester wrote : "When a three-star general writes a memo containing these words to the chief of staff, and then leaks the memo to the press (it did not arrive at the Sun through telepathy)..." see: In a recent intelligence report Considering the timing (at the run up to the Iraq elections, it's clear that some politician's pet project or base is about to be axed (or Kerry going to start negations with the enemy).
Your right. Rumsfeld, did just about everything well. The Iraqi army was defeated. Saddam was captured. The oil wells, bridges, dams and other major infrastructure were not blown. There were no mass refugee clusters. In fact, may Iraqis are returning from exile.
Now, the only real way to rid the country of all the ammo depots would have been mass bombings or engineers blowing them (along with the surrounding towns and sending debris and uranium powder into the air). The smaller ammo dumps would still be there and the terrorists would still have bombs. Further, once all the ammo was blown Iraqi would be vulnerable to outside attack.
As for putting 500,000 troops on the ground, it would just increase their profile (and the odds of them being hit) and make logistics difficult.
The rest of your points don't need rehashing. They speak for themselves. Again, is very odd that we suddenly have a media blitz against Rumsfeld. This media blitz has the finger prints of partisan politics (or outside influence).
Your right. Rumsfeld, did just about everything well. The Iraqi army was defeated. Saddam was captured. The oil wells, bridges, dams and other major infrastructure were not blown. There were no mass refugee clusters. In fact, may Iraqis are returning from exile.
Now, the only real way to rid the country of all the ammo depots would have been mass bombings or engineers blowing them (along with the surrounding towns and sending debris and uranium powder into the air). The smaller ammo dumps would still be there and the terrorists would still have bombs. Further, once all the ammo was blown Iraqi would be vulnerable to outside attack.
As for putting 500,000 troops on the ground, it would just increase their profile (and the odds of them being hit) and make logistics difficult.
The rest of your points don't need rehashing. They speak for themselves. Again, is very odd that we suddenly have a media blitz against Rumsfeld. This media blitz has the finger prints of partisan politics (or outside influence).
Jason,
Thanks for your excellent post on the realities of force levels.
>From where? Shall we strip North Korea?
There's also the time element. Assume that George Friedman is correct regarding the urgency of launching OIF I - to force the Saudis to get serious about helping dismantle Al Qaeda. With that priority there was not enough time to shift forces from Korea, Germany, etc.
Have you already read Friedman's new book: "America's Secret War - Inside the Hidden Worldwide Struggle Between the United States and Its Enemies", published Oct 5, 2004?
If not, may I offer some motivation - as I think it is one of the most illuminating background sources on GWOT, or better World War IV, as Norman Podhoretz frames it.
George Friedman is the founder of Strategic Forecasting Inc, usually referred to as Stratfor as in www.stratfor.com]. I subscribe to Stratfor's Terrorism Intelligence Brief.
Friedman confirms some of the inferences I had arrived at regarding US admin anti-Islamist policy logic and strategy - i.e., the logic that cannot be mentioned by officials responsible for driving policy. E.g.,
- the national security team post 9/11 quickly came to the conclusion that "homeland defense" was impossible. Attenuate threats yes, stop them no. Thus the only viable policy option was offense - to destroy the Islamist support structure everywhere - a multigenerational strategy.
- a central motivation for the liberation of Iraq was to force Saudi Arabia to get serious about cutting off Al Qaeda financing, and to obtain full-throated support from Saudi Intelligence.
- WMD was chosen as the best public argument to build the needed political support, in part because it was consistent with the history of UN resolutions and Saddam's lack of compliance [shoring up the legal case, offering at least a non-zero chance of Security Council support].
- the US did believe that Saddam had WMD, with most confidence being on chemical [that the military was seriously worried is obvious by requiring troops to outfit in that truly awful hazmat gear]. The worry about nuclear was future - after the collapsing sanctions were lifted. Bio weapons were a maybe.
- Friedman did not emphasize one of my key conclusions, that containment via the sanctions regime was essentially finished - but diplomacy dictated that US leadership not baldly state a central fact. France, Russia and China had been tunneling around the sanctions since 1992. All three were committed to ending the sanctions regime, thus allowing Saddam to resume his dream of leading the Arab world, and controlling the oil reserves of the Persian Gulf. Whether a nuclear Iraq was 2 years or 5 years away one can debate - but the end result was very clear - a nuclear Iraq at the hinge of the Middle East.
- Friedman's thesis does inform "why Iraq now?", while my thesis would have supported "Iraq soon, perhaps in the next 2 or 3 years" but did not demand "now.
For further motivation, there's some information online. First is this Friedman interview, which hits some of the key issues:
http://www.americassecretwar.com/author_interviews.html
Second there is the Epilogue/final chapter, published online Oct 4 to update readers on events since the book was written. You can obtain the Epilogue online here by signing up for a free trial Stratfor subscription [30 second signup]:
http://www.americassecretwar.com/about_book_finalchapter.html
Thanks for your excellent post on the realities of force levels.
>From where? Shall we strip North Korea?
There's also the time element. Assume that George Friedman is correct regarding the urgency of launching OIF I - to force the Saudis to get serious about helping dismantle Al Qaeda. With that priority there was not enough time to shift forces from Korea, Germany, etc.
Have you already read Friedman's new book: "America's Secret War - Inside the Hidden Worldwide Struggle Between the United States and Its Enemies", published Oct 5, 2004?
If not, may I offer some motivation - as I think it is one of the most illuminating background sources on GWOT, or better World War IV, as Norman Podhoretz frames it.
George Friedman is the founder of Strategic Forecasting Inc, usually referred to as Stratfor as in www.stratfor.com]. I subscribe to Stratfor's Terrorism Intelligence Brief.
Friedman confirms some of the inferences I had arrived at regarding US admin anti-Islamist policy logic and strategy - i.e., the logic that cannot be mentioned by officials responsible for driving policy. E.g.,
- the national security team post 9/11 quickly came to the conclusion that "homeland defense" was impossible. Attenuate threats yes, stop them no. Thus the only viable policy option was offense - to destroy the Islamist support structure everywhere - a multigenerational strategy.
- a central motivation for the liberation of Iraq was to force Saudi Arabia to get serious about cutting off Al Qaeda financing, and to obtain full-throated support from Saudi Intelligence.
- WMD was chosen as the best public argument to build the needed political support, in part because it was consistent with the history of UN resolutions and Saddam's lack of compliance [shoring up the legal case, offering at least a non-zero chance of Security Council support].
- the US did believe that Saddam had WMD, with most confidence being on chemical [that the military was seriously worried is obvious by requiring troops to outfit in that truly awful hazmat gear]. The worry about nuclear was future - after the collapsing sanctions were lifted. Bio weapons were a maybe.
- Friedman did not emphasize one of my key conclusions, that containment via the sanctions regime was essentially finished - but diplomacy dictated that US leadership not baldly state a central fact. France, Russia and China had been tunneling around the sanctions since 1992. All three were committed to ending the sanctions regime, thus allowing Saddam to resume his dream of leading the Arab world, and controlling the oil reserves of the Persian Gulf. Whether a nuclear Iraq was 2 years or 5 years away one can debate - but the end result was very clear - a nuclear Iraq at the hinge of the Middle East.
- Friedman's thesis does inform "why Iraq now?", while my thesis would have supported "Iraq soon, perhaps in the next 2 or 3 years" but did not demand "now.
For further motivation, there's some information online. First is this Friedman interview, which hits some of the key issues:
http://www.americassecretwar.com/author_interviews.html
Second there is the Epilogue/final chapter, published online Oct 4 to update readers on events since the book was written. You can obtain the Epilogue online here by signing up for a free trial Stratfor subscription [30 second signup]:
http://www.americassecretwar.com/about_book_finalchapter.html
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Take a look at Wallstreetwinnersonline.com
RickJ
# posted by : 3:38 AM
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# posted by : 4:57 AM
: 4:57 AM
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After using it you will never leave your family or friends to know your secrets to your superfast good dog behaviour.. New fail-safe
system is guaranteed to give you the result you want. Just get it and
forget it! - dog training
# posted by : 8:31 AM
: 8:31 AM
Online financial help! bill consolidation loans - consolidate bills and credit card debt. car loan info.
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