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Saturday, December 18, 2004

Reading 
Just picked up a copy of Robert Shiller's "The New Financial Order."


Looks promising. I'm a big admirer of his. He's the guy that published "Irrational Exuberance" in March of 2000. Perfect timing.

(I have an autographed hardcover copy of "Dow 36,000," the author's signature dated 1 March 2000, within ten days of the Naz peak and the beginning of the crash, that I think is precious).

Shiller rightly argues that the benefits of financial structure--the spreading of risk, the intelligent allocation of risk among different hazards, accrue mostly to the well-heeled. What's needed is some structure to extend the benefits of modern ideas on risk management to the working and middle classes.

Some interesting ideas:

1.) Insuring the value of a family home. We already do that, to an extent, with annuities with a guaranteed death benefit, and with certain mutual fund structures. It would not be hard to come up with a structure to do the same with home values, indexing it to, say, similar REIT indexes.

2.) Livelihood insurance. People can insure against income loss through disability. But we haven't come up with a structure to insure people against entire industries vanishing, through no fault of their own.

Well, we have unemployment insurance.

3.) True intergenerational income insurance and wealth transfers.

I'm eager to hear how Shiller develops his arguments. Rich people figure things out pretty quickly, and tend to insure to the hilt. The lower and middle classes could benefit a great deal - and with them ALL of us - by extending financial innovation and risk management to address their needs.

Splash, out

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