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Friday, September 24, 2004

Sunday in the Park With George Bush 
The Art of Peace took me to task the other day for my analysis of a major's email claiming progress made in Sammarrah. He cites this article from Stars and Stripes.

Hmmm...

I'm not sure where he sees the disconnect between the need to increase the size of the army over the next couple of years and a calming situation in Sammarrah.

My primary source--a major on the General Staff in Baghdad--says the situation in Sammarrah is settling down. Which is confirmed by a secondary source, Lisa Burgess, writing for the Stars and Stripes.

Now, the major I'm citing (actually, via a secondary source, Captain Ed, but the provenance is not in question right now, and a chain of custody can be established, so I consider the information more reliable than something that came from, say, CBS News) is extremely well placed to monitor the situation in Sammarah and the reasons for it.

Now, so's Lisa Burgess, who provides another look at the city. But doesn't tell me anything new, since we knew from the major's email that the insurgents had the initiative in Sammarrah.

Now, Burgess' assertion that any coalition force in Sammarrah proper was almost certain to be attacked "until last week" buttresses the email the major sent in.

As does the fact that she notes that last week, coalition forces were able to establish a presence there without being attacked.

So the major's email pretty much checks out.

I'm not quite seeing exactly where he thinks I'm taking a Bush Administration source uncritically--especially since I haven't seen the Bush Administration weigh in here (unless you think the Major was acting as a spokesman for the official Administration views on Sammarrah. Fat chance.)

I've had a Marine write in from Ramadi claiming "We own this city," and I didn't believe him, for example.

And I don't believe we "own" Sammarrah.

I thought the major was on the right track because 1.) He's a primary source well placed to know the operations in the area, and 2.) His observations generally confirm what I've seen with my own eyes in and around Ramadi.

Fighting continues. It is vicious and brutish. But policemen are trained and hired. Schools and mosques are rebuilt. Hospitals renovated. The Iraqi National Guard slowly gains in strength and competence. An election approaches in January.

The vast majority of neighborhoods, on any given day, witness little or no fighting.

All this is happening.

Just because the press can't tell the difference between Samarrah and Stalingrad doesn't mean the difference doesn't exist.


Now, where I expected to find more criticism (do I gotta think of EVERYTHING around here) is from people who note that yes, the M21 or equivalent anti-tank mines are showing up around Sammarrah and Route Grape.

Recall that last week I mentioned some metrics to watch that would indicate that the insurgency is growing in sophistication or had found new and well-placed avenues of support. One of them was an increase in the number of anti-tank mines used against coalition traffic.

Another metric I don't think I mentioned in so many words, but which bears watching, would be an increase in the ratio of direct fire wounds to shrapnel wounds from IEDs.

I don't have any trend information on the mines. Iraq is among the most heavily mined countries in the world--especially along the Iranian frontier. And the mines are out there. But in Ramadi, it was pretty unusual to find them in local weapons caches. They were used a few times in Al Anbar province, and along Highway 10 between Hit, Ramadi, and Habbaniyah, but they were the exception rather than the rule.

If the number of mines increases sharply across a number of cities simultaneously, that would indicate a new source of support and an increased level of logistical sophistication. Particularly if mines of similar lot numbers showed up in multiple cities, which would indicate a distribution system rather than a local cache.

I don't have the trend information, but it's worth a look.

We do have trend information on the wounds. The ratio of bullet wounds to frag wounds is on the rise.

If the trend continues, that could indicate a.) IED materials are getting short. b.) One or more local IED cells have been disrupted or destroyed. c.) Insurgents are growing more confident about their ability to engage coalition forces in a direct fire fight, and/or d.) Insurgent marksmanship skills have increased, which could indicate an infusion of trained foreign fighters or the capacity to do quality weapons training. I.e., a camp somewhere where this training is conducted.

It's impossible to tell from one metric alone. But take the metrics together and assemble them with art and sense--a la Georges Seurat--the picture comes into view.

Best of all, you don't have to sit through Stephen Sondheim's "Sunday in the Park with George" soundrack.

Splash, out

Jason

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