Thursday, May 20, 2004
"Wedding Party" Update
Well, obviously, I was not sufficiently sceptical of the initial reports that US forces actually struck a "wedding party." I can't rule it out. After all, just because you own a safehouse for terrorists and smugglers doesn't mean you can't also host a wedding party.
So there may yet be an element of truth to both Iraqi and American claims.
As I first pointed out in a November 20th post called "The Rhetoric of Body Counts," though:
Well, the US military says we found weapons there. No RPGs, but the weaponry they found includes machine guns and a variety of small arms--all prohibited under the Iraqi law.
Ok, big deal. You can kick a rock in western Iraq and find a weapons cache. Same thing with the Iraqi dinar. Iraqis don't trust the banks, and typically do their saving in their cookie jars and mattresses. It's not like the U.S., where people just don't keep large amounts of cash. A thousand bucks in cash doesn't automatically make you a suspect.
What is rather damning, though, is the presence of all the passports.
I'd love to hear if any of the passports were blanks.
Put the passport information together with the fact that there was apparently enough intelligence from other sources for us to mount a ground operation of some sort, and--and this is key--actually have an AC-130 gunship on call for the mission!
If US forces thought this was just another frontier homestead, they would have just had field artillery (if any were within range) or battalion and company mortars in support. You could get a helicopter for special occasions, but don't count on it.
An AC-130 gunship suggests, perhaps, that American intelligence thought that this house was something special.
There will be more to follow, but it doesn't appear that anyone blew it, as far as the rules of engagement are concerned. If US Forces took any fire at all, this was a legitimate target.
Maybe it was a legitimate target with a wedding on it. But it seems kosher to me so far.
Memo to terrorists: If you value your families' lives, take a page from Michael Corleone's book, and keep your business and family separate!
Splash, out
Jason
Update: The Belmont Club has its usual good analysis here.
So there may yet be an element of truth to both Iraqi and American claims.
As I first pointed out in a November 20th post called "The Rhetoric of Body Counts," though:
"If you're obsessed with a metric, then focus on the number and type of weapons captured--not the number of bodies.
Weapons counts cannot be faked. They cannot be padded. They can be inventoried by serial number and easily verified by commanders or media. There is no perverse incentive to take credit for the deaths of the innocent along with the enemy. The commander still has an incentive to exercise restraint until he is in decisive contact with the enemy.
Finally, and most crucially in Iraq, a focus on weapons counts and the rejection of the logic of body counts aligns the interests of commanders and good Iraqis.
Well, the US military says we found weapons there. No RPGs, but the weaponry they found includes machine guns and a variety of small arms--all prohibited under the Iraqi law.
Ok, big deal. You can kick a rock in western Iraq and find a weapons cache. Same thing with the Iraqi dinar. Iraqis don't trust the banks, and typically do their saving in their cookie jars and mattresses. It's not like the U.S., where people just don't keep large amounts of cash. A thousand bucks in cash doesn't automatically make you a suspect.
What is rather damning, though, is the presence of all the passports.
I'd love to hear if any of the passports were blanks.
Put the passport information together with the fact that there was apparently enough intelligence from other sources for us to mount a ground operation of some sort, and--and this is key--actually have an AC-130 gunship on call for the mission!
If US forces thought this was just another frontier homestead, they would have just had field artillery (if any were within range) or battalion and company mortars in support. You could get a helicopter for special occasions, but don't count on it.
An AC-130 gunship suggests, perhaps, that American intelligence thought that this house was something special.
There will be more to follow, but it doesn't appear that anyone blew it, as far as the rules of engagement are concerned. If US Forces took any fire at all, this was a legitimate target.
Maybe it was a legitimate target with a wedding on it. But it seems kosher to me so far.
Memo to terrorists: If you value your families' lives, take a page from Michael Corleone's book, and keep your business and family separate!
Splash, out
Jason
Update: The Belmont Club has its usual good analysis here.
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