Sunday, May 30, 2004
"It Lies:" The latest polling from CBS
Captain's Quarters has dissected the latest CBS presidential election poll, and noticed something rather damning:
"It lies."
Here's why:
Captain's Quarters has more (scroll down a bit.)
It smells like a regional bias to me. The polling was likely done from a couple of boughten marketing lists that are, for whatever reason, biased towards blue states or the coastal regions.
Nonetheless, it's pretty embarrassing for a major network to get busted on such sloppy methodology.
Good catch, CQ!
Splash, out
Jason
"It lies."
Here's why:
The CBS poll uses only 1113 registered voters, broken down in an unusual manner: 346 Republicans, 390 Democrats, and 377 independents. Since when are there that many more Democrats than Republicans? The poll then shows its "weighting" (although it doesn't explain what it means), and the numbers get even worse: 330-R, 401-D, 381-I. According to the University of Pennsylvania in 2003, Republicans accounted for 32.5% of the registered electorate, while Democrats accounted for 33.7%. In a sample of 1113 voters, you would then expect to see 361-R, 375-D, 376-I. The result CBS's sample is to throw off representation for Republicans by 8.6%, while bolstering Democrats by 7% and independents by 1.3%, using CBS' weighting.
Captain's Quarters has more (scroll down a bit.)
It smells like a regional bias to me. The polling was likely done from a couple of boughten marketing lists that are, for whatever reason, biased towards blue states or the coastal regions.
Nonetheless, it's pretty embarrassing for a major network to get busted on such sloppy methodology.
Good catch, CQ!
Splash, out
Jason
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