Sunday, April 18, 2004
The Strategic Offensive and the Calculus of War
Looks like the hard-line approach taken by the "hard-line" prime minister Ariel Sharon is getting results--and saving Israeli lives.
From today's New York Times
Israel's killing of Dr. Rantisi in a Saturday night missile strike, and a similar attack on March 22 that took the life of Sheik Ahmed Yassin, founder of Hamas, are the two most dramatic examples of the sustained Israeli offensive against the group. While the Israeli military actions have generated retaliatory bombings in the past, the overall number of Palestinian attacks has dropped substantially since they peaked in the spring of 2002...
After more than 50 suicide bombings in 2002, the figure declined to 20 last year. With a half-dozen bombings so far this year, the trend is similar to last year.
Israel has significantly weakened Hamas over the past two years, and it is not clear whether the most dangerous Palestinian faction can deliver on its pledge to launch a renewed wave of suicide bombings, as it has done frequently in the past.
Link.
Beautiful.
Israel didn't get to pop Sheik Yassin and Abdel Aziz Rantisi because some doddering bearded clown in a sheet got heatstroke on a mountain top and stumbled down with their itineraries etched out in a devine scrawl on tablets of granite.
Yassin and Rantisi were betrayed.
The Israelis knew where they were going, what time they would be there, and who would be traveling with them. They even had descriptions of the cars.
That's what good human intelligence will do for you.
And as long as Hamas is busy devouring itself looking for the traitor in their own midst, it's not going to be able to coordinate any major offensives.
This is the beauty of the strategic offensive.
The killing of a leader has value and repercussions far beyond the leader's own death. As long as the Israelis keep aggressively going after them, Hamas has to devote minds and man-hours to defensive measures. They'll have to travel in smaller groups. Their cells will have to operate in more isolation from one another. They will have to rein in communications. They will have to spend scarce resources on expensive MANPADS--which means less money is available for offensive operations.
They will have to employ decoys. They will have to vary their routines. Which makes it hard to do little things like remind everyone "hey, don't forget, we have the truck-bomb committee making meeting on Tuesday!"
Remember too, that Hamas has lost a major state sponsor in Saddam Hussein. So cash flow ain't what it used to be.
Men avenge small offenses. They cannot avenge large ones.
--Niccolo Machiavelli
Hamas vows of revenge are now becoming irrelevant.
They haven't avenged Sheik Yassin's death yet. So now are they going to come up with two revenge cycles now instead of just one? It's not even clear they can properly avenge the first death.
Israel lost nothing by killing Rantsini. Hamas was doing their best to kill Israelis already. They aren't going to do their ultra-double-best now, just because Ransini's dead.
Israel will lose nothing by killing the next Hamas leader. And the next one after that. Bonus points if they can kill them within a month of one another. Now that the Israelis are killing Hamas leaders wholesale, then killing additional Hamas leaders--one after the other--is almost a risk-free course of action.
Meanwhile, if taking the helm at Hamas amounts to a death sentence, Hamas will soon find it hard to recruit quality senior level management for the posts. Their top talent will mysteriously find something better to do.
And now it's Hamas who has to live in fear.
Keep the 'skeer' on 'em!
--Nathan Bedford Forest
An attack in one place can have effects far removed from the immediate objective. And when the attack is pressed, effects can compound themselves exponentially.
Success begets success. When Saddam Hussein was captured, sources in the Sunni triangle started singing like birds.
When the Russians pierced the Axis line as they initiated their counteroffensive at Stalingrad, Romanian units miles away broke and fled.
Small, local successess, skillfully and ruthlessly exploited, can be leveraged into huge gains.
Such is the terrible beauty of the calculus of war.
Splash, out
Jason
From today's New York Times
Israel's killing of Dr. Rantisi in a Saturday night missile strike, and a similar attack on March 22 that took the life of Sheik Ahmed Yassin, founder of Hamas, are the two most dramatic examples of the sustained Israeli offensive against the group. While the Israeli military actions have generated retaliatory bombings in the past, the overall number of Palestinian attacks has dropped substantially since they peaked in the spring of 2002...
After more than 50 suicide bombings in 2002, the figure declined to 20 last year. With a half-dozen bombings so far this year, the trend is similar to last year.
Israel has significantly weakened Hamas over the past two years, and it is not clear whether the most dangerous Palestinian faction can deliver on its pledge to launch a renewed wave of suicide bombings, as it has done frequently in the past.
Link.
Beautiful.
Israel didn't get to pop Sheik Yassin and Abdel Aziz Rantisi because some doddering bearded clown in a sheet got heatstroke on a mountain top and stumbled down with their itineraries etched out in a devine scrawl on tablets of granite.
Yassin and Rantisi were betrayed.
The Israelis knew where they were going, what time they would be there, and who would be traveling with them. They even had descriptions of the cars.
That's what good human intelligence will do for you.
And as long as Hamas is busy devouring itself looking for the traitor in their own midst, it's not going to be able to coordinate any major offensives.
This is the beauty of the strategic offensive.
The killing of a leader has value and repercussions far beyond the leader's own death. As long as the Israelis keep aggressively going after them, Hamas has to devote minds and man-hours to defensive measures. They'll have to travel in smaller groups. Their cells will have to operate in more isolation from one another. They will have to rein in communications. They will have to spend scarce resources on expensive MANPADS--which means less money is available for offensive operations.
They will have to employ decoys. They will have to vary their routines. Which makes it hard to do little things like remind everyone "hey, don't forget, we have the truck-bomb committee making meeting on Tuesday!"
Remember too, that Hamas has lost a major state sponsor in Saddam Hussein. So cash flow ain't what it used to be.
Men avenge small offenses. They cannot avenge large ones.
--Niccolo Machiavelli
Hamas vows of revenge are now becoming irrelevant.
They haven't avenged Sheik Yassin's death yet. So now are they going to come up with two revenge cycles now instead of just one? It's not even clear they can properly avenge the first death.
Israel lost nothing by killing Rantsini. Hamas was doing their best to kill Israelis already. They aren't going to do their ultra-double-best now, just because Ransini's dead.
Israel will lose nothing by killing the next Hamas leader. And the next one after that. Bonus points if they can kill them within a month of one another. Now that the Israelis are killing Hamas leaders wholesale, then killing additional Hamas leaders--one after the other--is almost a risk-free course of action.
Meanwhile, if taking the helm at Hamas amounts to a death sentence, Hamas will soon find it hard to recruit quality senior level management for the posts. Their top talent will mysteriously find something better to do.
And now it's Hamas who has to live in fear.
Keep the 'skeer' on 'em!
--Nathan Bedford Forest
An attack in one place can have effects far removed from the immediate objective. And when the attack is pressed, effects can compound themselves exponentially.
Success begets success. When Saddam Hussein was captured, sources in the Sunni triangle started singing like birds.
When the Russians pierced the Axis line as they initiated their counteroffensive at Stalingrad, Romanian units miles away broke and fled.
Small, local successess, skillfully and ruthlessly exploited, can be leveraged into huge gains.
Such is the terrible beauty of the calculus of war.
Splash, out
Jason
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