Thursday, April 15, 2004
The Realized and Potential Capacity of Vessels II: Guard Retention
...So first Military.com runs an ABC story called National Guard Losing Members, which quotes a Rhode Island Guard official as saying recruitment levels are 25% off last years' levels.
Now, just 3 weeks later, Military.com runs this story:
Military Numbers are Rising:
Despite a rising tide of combat deaths and the prospect of deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan for years to come, Americans continue to volunteer for duty and are re-enlisting at record rates. Even the Army National Guard, which has had 150,000 citizen soldiers mobilized for up to a year, has seen retention rates "going through the roof," said Guard spokesman Maj. Robert Howell. "Mass exodus has not been the case in the Army National Guard," said Howell, deputy chief of the Strength Maintenance Division at the National Guard Bureau in Washington.
The Guard was prepared to lose up to 18 percent of units returning from lengthy deployments, but it has averaged just 16.6 percent, with some as low as 12.6 percent, Howell said.
The Guard fully expects to again reach its recruiting goal of 56,000 members this year, to maintain its total strength of 350,000.
The Guard's goal for first-term re-enlistments , for those with less than six years of service, had been 65 percent this fiscal year but has rocketed to 141 percent - which indicates that additional members re-enlisted early, usually to take advantage of bonuses.
What gives?
Although it doesn't match what I'm seeing so far (I believe my battalion's losses will be heavy, but nobody can leave for another 90 days), I'm inclined to trust the more recent story--it's based on much broader data and has a national spokesperson--something ABC couldn't be bothered with, I guess.
I guess I'm seeing an unrepresentative sample of the Guard here in Florida.
Splash, out
Jason
Now, just 3 weeks later, Military.com runs this story:
Military Numbers are Rising:
Despite a rising tide of combat deaths and the prospect of deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan for years to come, Americans continue to volunteer for duty and are re-enlisting at record rates. Even the Army National Guard, which has had 150,000 citizen soldiers mobilized for up to a year, has seen retention rates "going through the roof," said Guard spokesman Maj. Robert Howell. "Mass exodus has not been the case in the Army National Guard," said Howell, deputy chief of the Strength Maintenance Division at the National Guard Bureau in Washington.
The Guard was prepared to lose up to 18 percent of units returning from lengthy deployments, but it has averaged just 16.6 percent, with some as low as 12.6 percent, Howell said.
The Guard fully expects to again reach its recruiting goal of 56,000 members this year, to maintain its total strength of 350,000.
The Guard's goal for first-term re-enlistments , for those with less than six years of service, had been 65 percent this fiscal year but has rocketed to 141 percent - which indicates that additional members re-enlisted early, usually to take advantage of bonuses.
What gives?
Although it doesn't match what I'm seeing so far (I believe my battalion's losses will be heavy, but nobody can leave for another 90 days), I'm inclined to trust the more recent story--it's based on much broader data and has a national spokesperson--something ABC couldn't be bothered with, I guess.
I guess I'm seeing an unrepresentative sample of the Guard here in Florida.
Splash, out
Jason
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