Monday, September 13, 2004
Hardly Tet
So six Americans are wounded in Baghdad and the New York Times thinks the sky is falling.
You stupid pussies! This doesn't reflect an insurgency that is any more powerful than it was before.
This can be pulled off by a few suicide bombers and four mortar crews. Hey, that's about a squad (+) or a platoon (-).
Operationally speaking, this is well within the fat part of the bell curve of what we've seen before.
Indeed, we've seen the insurgents--not counting the al Sadr guys--I mean, COMPETENT insurgents--gather in at least company strength before. Once for the battle of Samarra. Once for the Big Fallujah Jailbreak. A couple of times against Marines in Ramadi.
Each one of those took greater strength and coordination than the attacks that happened today and yesterday.
I hate to break it to Andrew Sullivan, who seems to be losing heart. But this looks like a status quo to me. This doesn't strike me as a marked deterioration in Baghdad at all. Indeed, I don't see any mention of Sadr City in the article, so I guess Sadr City's largely been quelled?
It's hard to say. But we knew there were loads of insurgents in Baghdad. And insurgents are gonna do what insurgents do. Which means they're gonna make some attacks.
I'm not seeing any increasing sophistication here.
I don't think the Times would know what "increasing sophistication" was if it bit them on the ass.
The insurgents took out a Bradley, yes. But they had to use a suicide bomber to do it.
Shades of the Kamikazes of 1945. It's not a sign of "increasing sophistication." It's a sign of increasing desperation.
The mortar strikes appear to have been ineffective. None launched more than a dozen rounds.
Yeah, it sucks. But it's hardly the Somme all over again.
Coming from American guns, it would simply be called "harrassment and interdiction fire."
Not very effective stuff.
Here's what "increasing sophistication" would look like:
American armored vehicles are being damaged or destroyed not with suicide bombers--which are by definition a "fire and forget" weapon system--but with volley-fired RPG-18s supported by skillfully employed automatic weapons covering their flanks and withdrawal routes.
American convoys running into modern anti-tank mines on a regular basis (as opposed to mortar shells set up as IEDs.) These mines are made more effective by an obstacle plan, and the IED ambushes are supported by automatic weapons and Dragonov sniper fire. Reinforcement units are hit.
Mortar fire is not random, but somehow manages to consistently land close to US mortar and artillery positions, headquarters buildings, and fuel and ammo storage areas.
When an American convoy is attacked, insurgents manage to drop a curtain of mortar rounds along the withdrawal routes between the Americans and the insurgents.
The enemy begins to seek direct fire engagements with Americans from positions of advantage, finds them, and sustains them for more than 15 minutes.
American tanks are destroyed by Milan, Dragon, Sagger, or similar 2nd generation anti-tank missiles, from the flanks or rear.
Insurgents are able to gather in units larger than platoon or company strength and surprise US or Iraqi forces. They can do so again, in a different place or the SAME place, the next day.
Maybe things will go to shit, still.
But except in and around Fallujah, such does not yet seem to be the case. Not even in Najaf.
I got an email yesterday from a Marine in Ramadi, who's frustrated at the overwhelmingly pessimistic news coverage. He says he drives across the city almost every day without incident, and can do so at will.
"We own this city," he writes.
Well, I don't think that's true by a long shot, either.
But this ain't the second Tet Offensive here, even though the Chicken Little press corps--who know nothing about small unit tactics or what's "sophisticated" and what's merely stupid--will cover it like it is.
Splash, out
Jason
BAGHDAD, Iraq, Sept. 12 - In a series of tightly sequenced attacks, at least 25 Iraqis were killed by suicide car bombings and a barrage of missile and mortar fire in several neighborhoods across Baghdad on Sunday.
The attacks were the most widespread in months, seeming to demonstrate the growing power of the insurgency and heightening the sense of uncertainty and chaos in the capital at a time when American forces have already ceded control to insurgents in a number of cities outside of Baghdad.
You stupid pussies! This doesn't reflect an insurgency that is any more powerful than it was before.
This can be pulled off by a few suicide bombers and four mortar crews. Hey, that's about a squad (+) or a platoon (-).
Operationally speaking, this is well within the fat part of the bell curve of what we've seen before.
Indeed, we've seen the insurgents--not counting the al Sadr guys--I mean, COMPETENT insurgents--gather in at least company strength before. Once for the battle of Samarra. Once for the Big Fallujah Jailbreak. A couple of times against Marines in Ramadi.
Each one of those took greater strength and coordination than the attacks that happened today and yesterday.
I hate to break it to Andrew Sullivan, who seems to be losing heart. But this looks like a status quo to me. This doesn't strike me as a marked deterioration in Baghdad at all. Indeed, I don't see any mention of Sadr City in the article, so I guess Sadr City's largely been quelled?
It's hard to say. But we knew there were loads of insurgents in Baghdad. And insurgents are gonna do what insurgents do. Which means they're gonna make some attacks.
I'm not seeing any increasing sophistication here.
I don't think the Times would know what "increasing sophistication" was if it bit them on the ass.
The insurgents took out a Bradley, yes. But they had to use a suicide bomber to do it.
Shades of the Kamikazes of 1945. It's not a sign of "increasing sophistication." It's a sign of increasing desperation.
The mortar strikes appear to have been ineffective. None launched more than a dozen rounds.
Yeah, it sucks. But it's hardly the Somme all over again.
Coming from American guns, it would simply be called "harrassment and interdiction fire."
Not very effective stuff.
Here's what "increasing sophistication" would look like:
American armored vehicles are being damaged or destroyed not with suicide bombers--which are by definition a "fire and forget" weapon system--but with volley-fired RPG-18s supported by skillfully employed automatic weapons covering their flanks and withdrawal routes.
American convoys running into modern anti-tank mines on a regular basis (as opposed to mortar shells set up as IEDs.) These mines are made more effective by an obstacle plan, and the IED ambushes are supported by automatic weapons and Dragonov sniper fire. Reinforcement units are hit.
Mortar fire is not random, but somehow manages to consistently land close to US mortar and artillery positions, headquarters buildings, and fuel and ammo storage areas.
When an American convoy is attacked, insurgents manage to drop a curtain of mortar rounds along the withdrawal routes between the Americans and the insurgents.
The enemy begins to seek direct fire engagements with Americans from positions of advantage, finds them, and sustains them for more than 15 minutes.
American tanks are destroyed by Milan, Dragon, Sagger, or similar 2nd generation anti-tank missiles, from the flanks or rear.
Insurgents are able to gather in units larger than platoon or company strength and surprise US or Iraqi forces. They can do so again, in a different place or the SAME place, the next day.
Maybe things will go to shit, still.
But except in and around Fallujah, such does not yet seem to be the case. Not even in Najaf.
I got an email yesterday from a Marine in Ramadi, who's frustrated at the overwhelmingly pessimistic news coverage. He says he drives across the city almost every day without incident, and can do so at will.
"We own this city," he writes.
Well, I don't think that's true by a long shot, either.
But this ain't the second Tet Offensive here, even though the Chicken Little press corps--who know nothing about small unit tactics or what's "sophisticated" and what's merely stupid--will cover it like it is.
Splash, out
Jason
Comments:
Good points all... I just wonder where all these Fallujah and Najaf munitions are originating? Seems unlikely they're out of Saddam's old dumps, carefully stashed 'til need arises. So let's suspect Iran: Hardly surprising if there isn't a significant, if not massive, amount of ordnance coming across from Mullah-land. And what with recent reports of troop movements along borders, not to mention the ongoing saga of Teheran's quest for WMDs, aren't we entitled to think that this can only go so far? Come early '05, about the time the Gulf War started, it wouldn't surprise me all that much to see a Coalition drive to take 'em out.
Thanks fer your posts. Never any substitute for first-hand reports at ground-level.
Thanks fer your posts. Never any substitute for first-hand reports at ground-level.
I am told by some senior enlisted that there are a lot of ammo dumps in Iraq. I have photos from these guys of them and of them blowing them up. They are all over the place. So its not hard to find and get this stuff.
"You stupid pussies! This doesn't reflect an insurgency that is any more powerful than it was before."
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PS Thanks for serving our Country, James.
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PS Thanks for serving our Country, James.
# posted by 
: 8:15 PM
: 8:15 PM
I agree with you in your appraisal of the military situation on the ground. In fact, I think that both hostage taking and suicide bombers (the Kleenex Weapon) are the acknowledgment of military impotence. That powerlessness has much to do with the inability to muster a massive support. Muktadar al Sadr is a true to life demagogue but he’s not Khomeini and never will be. The Sunni insurgents haven’t been able to go beyond the very first chapter of Mao’s guerrilla war. Iraq isn’t Vietnam, but, above all, Zarqawi isn’t general Giap nor the fighters have anything to do with the Vietcong, and I don’t mean ideologically, of course. I mean that they lack the very organizational capacity needed to mount something like the Tet offensive.
Now, the Tet offensive in Iraq is just in the heads of the New York Times aging editors who can’t forget the times when they were young and handsome, listened to the Beatles (or Hendrix) and smoked pot to dream of a more beautiful world. Now, paradoxically, that’s “real”. The Iraq on the Hudson, in more than one way, is another war… it takes place in the heads and the nightmares of a generation.
Now, the Tet offensive in Iraq is just in the heads of the New York Times aging editors who can’t forget the times when they were young and handsome, listened to the Beatles (or Hendrix) and smoked pot to dream of a more beautiful world. Now, paradoxically, that’s “real”. The Iraq on the Hudson, in more than one way, is another war… it takes place in the heads and the nightmares of a generation.
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