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Monday, December 13, 2004

Speculationg in the Dinar? 
A couple emails in:

I have also been impressed with your knowledge in matters of personal
finance and was wondering what kind of investments I could be looking at
that would reflect my faith in the future of Iraq over the next 20 years or
so. I have about $3,000 dollars in cash in my Schwab account to play with
and would like to "put my money where my mouth is" so to speak. Do you have
any thoughts?

I live in San Francisco and work in Berkeley; so I am pretty much surrounded
with people who think we are going to hell in a handbasket. The possibility
of a stable prosperous Iraq is not even entertained by these people; who
even hope for failure so they can say "I told you so".

I am a life-long leftie who just voted for a Republican president for the
first time in my 30 years of voting.


Well, welcome to the dark side!!!! :)

I really have no opinion on the value of the Iraqi dinar one way or the other. I'm not a huge fan of currency speculation, in general, for the retail investor, because I don't think the average joe brings enough knowledge to the table to have a consistant, reliable trading advantage.

That said, I do know some people who have found marked inefficiencies trading dinars on ebay, of all places!

I was similarly cautious when the new dinar came out last year, and troops were buying it up like crazy, and then asking me what I thought.

I was INCREDIBLY wrong then. Most of them made out like bandits. Nevertheless, just because the dinar has had a great run doesn't mean that will continue to be the case.

Will Iraq improve in the long run? Sure.

Does that mean the Iraqi dinar will appreciate? Not neccessarily. It is possible that Iraq will wish to prosper by boosting exports (such as oil) by DEPRECIATING the dinar against the dollar, and against everything else they can think of. This will be good for the employment situation in Iraq. And would help Iraq pay off its debts, which are still substantial, even after some of the forgiven loans.

I think the most that an investor can expect is that the risk premium on the dinar will eventually narrow. But I can't reliably forcast investor SENTIMENT. All I can forecast are fundamentals. And Iraqi fundamentals are improving.

But personally, I feel more comfortable, on a risk-adjusted basis, maybe with Iraqi assets, denominated in dollars.

Other peoples mileage may vary, and that's fine. I just think very few people really bring much to the table to compensate for the downside risk of the dinar.

Then again, the idiotic moonbats of Berkeley are among the most efficient contrary indicators the world has ever seen. So maybe there's value to be had in staking out the opposite position of whatever position they take.

If you want to speculate, though, I think you may be better off investing with a regional specialist, or emerging markets fund.

Splash, out

Jason


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